A couple of clues for you.
Reagan lost MN by 4K votes.
Trump lost MN by 1.5%.
In 1984, there was little significant 3rd party opposition, but in their absence, Mondale most likely would still have won. Either way, it was very close.
In 2016, 3.84% went to Gary Johnson, 1.8% went to Evan McMuffin, but that was offset by the 1.26% that went to Jill Stein.
You can’t necessarily assume which way 3rd party votes would have gone without that option, but in the absence of Johnson and McMuffin, Trump might well have taken MN in 2016. He should have a better chance in 2020 unless the Libertarians and Never Trumpers once again conspire to throw the state to the far-left Democrat candidate.