Posted on 09/09/2019 12:39:16 PM PDT by Cronos
A no-deal Brexit could trigger a recession lasting four quarters in Britain, with the country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 1.5 percent in 2020, the accountancy firm KPMG warned on Monday.
KPMG economists said that trade disruption under a no-deal Brexit would damage the British businesses, while potential shortages of imported foods and medicines are likely to undermine consumer confidence.
A no-deal Brexit could also significantly dent exports in 2020, causing delays at the border and confusion about regulations. "While both the Bank of England and the UK government would be likely to offer monetary and fiscal policy support, their headroom for action is limited," KPMG said.
At the same time, KPMG believes that a Brexit deal that would finally resolve some of the uncertainties about Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could lead the British economy to perform better than previously expected in 2020 and allow the Bank of England to keep the base interest rate at the current 0.75 percent level until at least Nov. 2020.
According to KPMG, a Brexit deal could prompt an appreciation of the British pound by as much as 15 percent and enable businesses to recommence their investment plans. With a strong labor market providing support for further consumer spending, an orderly departure from the EU on Oct. 31 is expected to help the British economy rebound, with GDP growth reaching 1.5 percent in 2020.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: "With the Brexit debate poised on a knife edge, the UK economy is now at a crossroads. It is difficult to think of another time when the UK has been on the verge of two economic outturns that are so different, but the impact of a no-deal Brexit should not be underestimated.
"Despite headwinds, such as the slowing global economy and limited domestic capacity, the UK economy now has the potential to strengthen over the next 12 months. But a no-deal Brexit could put paid to this upside, triggering the UK's first recession for a decade," she said.
The KPMG analyst did say that. There are other sources that repeat the same
Yup, it must be fake.
KPMG didn’t say that
EU propaganda. Nothing more.
Yael Selfin, from LSE is an EU propagandist in your opinion?
THIS IS GREAT NEWS!!
BECAUSE SO FAR THEY’VE BEEN 100% WRONG WITH EVERY PREDICTION
I thought the EU was heading toward a recession anyway.
This is a good time to see what Soros and Democrats are investing in and jump on the wagon.
...KPMG economists..”
Economists are like climate scientists and weather persons .... their predictions are wrong 99% of the time and should be limited to predictions given after the event happens to increase their accuracy.
KPMG didn’t but plenty of others did. We all learned to be skeptical of the consultants’ predictions around Y2K.
Yeah, this prognostication has about as much a chance of success as that one did. In other words, zero.
The sole government member present made this exact point. They are tying his hands in advance of any negotiations. Labour lady countered that she trusts that the EU representatives will negotiate in good faith because they are such peachy-keen fellers, and if they don’t, then they can repeal the act that they just passed. This is worse than dangerously naive. It’s malice.
Most astonishing thing was that some of the Scottish nationalists started clamoring to impeach Johnson, accusing him of not wanting to negotiate with the EU so that the UK could fall into the evil clutches of—GASP! ORGAN CHORD!—Donald Trump. It’s like a parallel universe to the US government, and Trump is England’s Putin (still a racist, of course). I turned it off when it got to Northern Ireland and new legislation to do whatever they do in Northern Ireland. But first I got to hear a former Labour member thoroughly curse out Jeremy Corbin. It was sweet.
I see they have a Paul Krugman in the UK.
The US will be the UK’s backup, I’d imagine.
Trump isn’t going to abandon them.
The rest of Europe can fall in on itself.
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