Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/
Hillary has a 98% chance of winning.
July 1, 2019
Dead on arrival.
Hillary can’t lose with her “ground game”.
A hundred million to zero chance of winning.
Predicted 2018, not 2016.
A few poll.
AOC will win in 2020, by a landslide.
Signed,
G. SorozNazi Consulting Corp.
Leftists and their wet dreams.
Must we read about EVERY one?
The only way Trump can LOSE is some 2020 version of Ross Perot taking away his votes. It is the way Carter won in 1976 (Anderson being the third party candidate) and Clinton won in 1992. Obama won because he was black, and HRC lost because she was the worst female stereotype, so identity politics won’t get it done for the Dems, only someone who can afford a robust third party campaign. I don’t see that happening, so I don’t see Trump losing.
A hundredy billion terabyte chance of winning. Polls say so.
Funny how she never saw Trump’s defensive blockers. Fumbled the ball at third and goal and Team Trump ran it back for a TD. Or so they make it sound.
Not sure i would arrogantly dismiss the predictions of someone who ended up being 100% correct. The smart position would be to take it seriously.
Midterm, schmidterm.
The Russiagate hoax is over and debunked.
The 40 RINO cowards who retired, fearing that Russiagate was real, caused the Rat takeover in 2018.
They can take their models and ram them up their snouts.
BS
What was her prediction for 2016? How about the Senate in 2018?
Crickets.
She is a one-trick pony with a great PR department.
Peace negotiations with North Korea, Peace plan between Israel and the Arabs, negotiations with Iran... All of those will be strong arguments for, like Reagan said in ‘84, “not to change horses mid-stream”.
Be wary of predictions 15 months before the election. Of course it matters who the Dem nominee is.
Trump won by a VERY slim margin in the critical precincts.
Energizing the base that already voted from him is not the winning solution. He needs to not lose any voters and pick up a few more.
And devastatingly detailed data models.
Sorry, phone does the weirdest edits.
a dem poll.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.