I think there’s a shot. Lived in Minneapolis for a couple years. That city will always vote Democrat but that’s not necessarily the case in the rest of the state and if the rest goes for Trump, it will flip the state. Traditionally, the labor unions there have been heavily pro Democrat but those are exactly the kind of people the current Democrat party has abandoned....the kind who elsewhere in the Midwest flocked to Trump.
This is why I think he can take Colorado this time too. The southern part of the state is latinos who are multi generation Americans, blue collar, and a giant steel mill increasing its output.
First, if he could carve out half the votes that the Libertarian candidate got (total of 113k)...that would be a good fresh start.
From the 2016 county by county voting map, it’s only about 20-percent of the counties that went to Hillary, but they were all urbanized counties with significant Democrat votes.
If you dug into black votes, and convince a higher group to go over and flip to the GOP...I think he could pull in another 100,000 votes via that group.
This is the one state where I think he could grow his 2016 vote tally up by 20-percent...maybe going to 1.6-million total votes.