I suspect that Crowley will get close to half the district’s votes even without running a campaign. Firstly because he represents a broader swath of the public and secondly because every thinking person who has listened to Ocasio-Cortez will run away from her. Crowley has obviously been instructed (by whom I can’t say) to stand down.
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Or, perhaps Crowley is playing it cool. He knows if he openly challenged Ocasio-Cortez, the story would switch from her lunatic remarks to how he doesn’t respect the democratic process or women. If he holds back and wins the election anyway, he becomes the reluctant leader. The people have spoken, etc, etc. He takes her out without ever challenging her openly. And there is a good chance he might as the race is a three-way split including the Republican in the race.
2012: Crowley 120k [83%], Gibbons (Republican) 21k [15%], others (mostly Green Party) 2%.
2014: Crowley 50k [88%], Elizabeth Perri (Conservative) - 6k [12%], Others 117 votes.
^^ Exceedingly low turnout.
2016: Crowley 147k (83%), Spotorno (Republican) - 30k (17%), others 191 votes.
I don’t think either Pappas (Republican) or Perri (Conservative) has a chance. Crowley hasn’t been campaigning; I don’t think he has a chance either.
Ocasio-Cortez: 78%
Pappas (R) - 14%
Crowley (3rd party) - 7%
Elizabeth Perri (Conservative) - less than 2%