Why is that a surprise? Tariffs imposed by us will result in retaliatory tariffs against our exports. That will cost exporters business. It isn’t rocket science.
>> Tariffs imposed by us will result in retaliatory tariffs against our exports. That will cost exporters business. It isn’t rocket science <<
You’re absolutely correct.
But the problem is even more fundamental, because with or without tariffs, foreigners will buy U.S. exports only if they have U.S. dollars.
And where will they get those dollars? When U.S. firms and consumers buy those foreigners’ products.
Therefore, if we buy zero foreign products, the foreigners will have zero U.S. dollars. And they will buy zero U.S. exports.
Then by logical extension, changes in the level of imports will generate corresponding changes in the level of exports, with the same arithmetic sign.
It’s just a matter of simple deductive logic that is confirmed by empirical studies of the data.