While the Iranian regime over-committed itself and was stretched way out, sanctions have slit open the soft underbelly of its economy. Now the regimes guts have dropped out, and it is bleeding rapidly. Likely a mortal wound, if we keep the pressure on.
It has no real allies in the region (neither Russia nor Syria stood with it when the Israelis struck). Its surrogate militias are hired help. It is hated at home, and holds power only with salaried goons (Basij). The core of its power (Pasdaran) are allowed to plunder the economy wholesale to buy their loyalty. When the money stops flowing, only a tiny insignificant cult really believes in their ideology. It is all built on mercenary self interest.
Although love for the regime depends on being paid, the hatred for the regime is real and deep. Tens of thousands of political prisoners have been hung - their families smolder with a desire for revenge. Their wealthy and powerful neighbors like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States; have developed an existential enmity after years and decades of murderous attacks.
Their friends are rented, but their enemies have been bought and paid for.
Good post
Bump