Posted on 05/10/2018 8:13:36 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Bruni: I knew you were going to bring that up, and if I may crow a bit, those numbers were on my list of questions to ask. So the whole belief that Democrats in November will be much more exercised, much more passionate, and will turn out more reliably — you don’t buy it
Bliss: Of course the Democrats have more energy than Republicans right now. But will that be a good thing? History and every pundit on the planet says we’re going to lose the House! This was always going to be a tough environment, we’ve always known that, and that’s why we’ve been knocking on doors since February 2017. Take what I’m about to say with a giant grain of salt, but if the election were today, we would keep the House
Bruni: Wait, wait, based on what? Give me a short list of bullet points. What numbers do you see out there, what realities can you describe, that support the notion that despite Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and the typical two-years-after pendulum swing for the party that doesn’t hold the White House,
Bliss: We just reserved $48 million in fall advertising, and before we did that, we spent months doing polling and focus groups all over the country. In the last month, we’ve done surveys in nine of the toughest districts in the country: Will Hurd (Texas), David Valadao (California), John Katko (New York), Erik Paulsen (Minnesota), Jeff Denham (California), Kevin Yoder (Kansas), Mimi Walters (California), Peter Roskam (Illinois), Mike Coffman (Colorado) — and in those races, Republicans would win every seat except one. Obviously, the election is not today, but there is the big disconnect between what we hear in the media and what’s going on in the real world.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Worth the read...reporter for the Times is sure the democrats will win big..
And is not getting the answers he wants
Why tell the opposition your plans?
The historical tendency is for the party not in the whitehouse to gain seats in the House first midterm. Pretty normal, IMHO for the reason that some weak sisters get swept up on the coattails and there are always a lot of people who vote for a candidate they don’t really love (or even like) because they regard them as the lesser of two evils.
Why tell the opposition your plans?
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That’s a good question.
Because it makes their tears more delicious when they find out everything you told them that they laughed off turned out to be true.
Nancy promising to take their money away is NOT good politics....and will tick off even Dem voters.
Historically, I've always thought the mid-term turnover had more to do with American's thinking we need a "check and balance" system in Washington. That philosophy shouldn't apply this year, since Trump doesn't have the support of the propaganda media, Dems OR Rinos.....so there's already a "check" on him.
In fact, I'm hoping all the negative propaganda will tilt many on the fence voters to support Republicans, just to show their disdain for the Socialist's constant attacks, through lies, about a duly elected President.
Yea! Sorta like what we hear from the media before the 2016 election.
Can the fake news media be held liable (civil or criminal violations) for intentionally lying to and misleading the American public ? Slander? Libel?
At a minimum they should file as contributions in kind for the Dem campaign committee.
The problem is the GOP is actively working against Trump and many conservatives are past getting enthused about voting for another suit who will betray them again. The libs hate Trump as much as we hate Hillary. That’s hard to counteract with mushy middlins.
I think the House stays as is and the Dems lose five Senate seats.
I’m interested to see what happens this summer.
As billyboy says...it is the economy stupid..
When literally all the people you talk with and associate with are Trump HATERS, it's hard to see the world dispassionately and without your own severe bias.
This guy’s got his head up his own arse, if he truly believes what he is saying.. no wonder the R’s are heading to slaughter this fall in the house.
If this guy truly believes the bile he’s spewing in this interview, its no wonder Republican’s are heading to defeat this fall.
I fully expect 10 if not more House seats to flip D in the upper midwest alone, they will easily lose 22 or more and the house.
If this is the guy they are banking on for the fall, it explains so much.
Look around you effing moron... Look at PA-18, look at AZ.. Dems have a HUGE enthusiasm gap in their favor... Hell in AZ they pulled PRESIDENTIAL YEAR NUMBERS in a special election! While the best the R’s could manage was mid term type numbers, the ONLY reason it stayed red was because the district is just so red that it didn’t need more than midterm turnout to beat Presidential year turnout by D’s... THAT’S NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE IN A LOT OF DISTRICTS!
Hell, look at PA-18... R left 50k on the table from midterm numbers, while dems majorly overperformed!
You better get your head out of your arse and realize that just getting your regular reliable voters to the polls this fall is a recipe for disaster. A lot of Purple and Pink Districts are going to go blue, unless you start to realize you need those non traditional MAGA/TRUMP voters... and start to give them a reason to care and show up, you are heading for a bruising.
This is as obvious to me as it was Trump was going to win in the Summer of 2016.
The GOP is categorically incompetent, they have no idea who the electorate is.... At this point the ONLY path they have for success is to win IN SPITE of their incompetence, and the only way I see that happening is if the D’s openly run on Impeachment etc... That will give those MAGA voters a reason to show up in spite of the GOP’s ineptitude.
Granted 6 months is a lifetime in politics, but the path the GOP is on right now, is for flat out loss of the house... no question... The bright spot is they should gain seats in the senate, because its a lot easier to overwhelm a congressional district with turnout than a state.. There are a lot of purple and pink districts, not too many purple or pink states.
I hope they are putting the plan in the hands of the people who got Trump elected- and not the GOP itself.
The GOP has as much to fear from Trump voters as the Democrats. No one is surprised when Democrats act like Democrats, but the GOP has been playing both sides against the middle for too long. They are willing partners in destroying our republic.
The hated Reagan; they despise Trump; they loathe conservatives. The traitorous bastards are all about Washington, all the time. They’d rather lose than face the music. The Tree of Liberty is thirsty...
The entire GOP ecosphere is in denial and is just flat out incompetent... Trump showed you how to win for a generation or more... and you just refuse to learn the simple lessons.
I’ve never seen such systemic incompetence from the top down.
In PA-18 for example, where I live, it was clear out of the gate they were in trouble and the messaging was pathetic. They pumped over 5 Million into the district to wind up 50k votes shy of average MIDTERM turnout!!!
Running a Rovesque campaign and messaging in the age of Trump, particularly in the upper midwest is STUPID.
You can’t give the same message you gave for 20 years, that never got those voters to show up and vote for you, and then expect them to this time. Had they given me Half of that amount I would happily showed them how to win.
You keep assuming they want to win. Incompetence can only explain so much—at some point you’ve got to look at intent.
Why does a national party consistently sabotage its own (conservative) candidates?
Why did both Mc Cain and Romney abandon their campaigns at crucial junctions?
Why do conservatives fall for the rhetoric rather than looking at results?
I rarely pay attention to Trump’s tweets, but I see the actions he has taken and I’m ecstatic. He’s doing what he said he would, despite the entire power structure opposing him. He keeps the press and others occupied with Trivial Pursuit while he’s playing Risk and conquering enemy territory.
The old Reagan coalition stands little chance in our new nation of tribes. Unfortunately, the new chiefs look suspiciously like the old chiefs. If Trump had any congressional support, this country may be pulled from the brink—destroying the plans of the Democrats and GOP. Neither party supports him nor their supposed “constituents”.
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