” I don’t think Russia would be blinking at all if they had a leg to stand on, legally, and Assad wasn’t guilty. “
Sure they would.
They cannot prevail in a conventional scenario and are sanely unwilling to risk MAD over Syria.
Their key to world power and prestige at this time is the perception they are a viable security alternative to the US. If they were to directly challenge us, and get their ass handed to them, that would all be exposed.
And they would have their ass handed to them in a conventional conflict. Decisively.
If he is correct, Trump would look foolish attacking Syria. Not to mention making the Russians more credible than the US. Gotta be damned sure.