Perhaps not. However, the most important number to look at is how motivated each side is. ATTM the dems are more motivated to vote by 10 or 12 points more than the republicans. It always happens for some reason. The party not in the White House is more motivated to vote as shown by the last cluster of local/state elections.
As beloved as Obama was by blacks, for some reason, they did not show up at either of his mid term elections.
That was my point. Republicans need to motivate the MAGA voter to show up
Blacks showed up to vote for the “black” (Oreo) Obama never care to even try to get them to show up for anything else