Posted on 01/26/2018 9:49:25 AM PST by Red Badger
Oh you see copper as an indicator rather than a result? Because an over $3.00 copper price is unrealistic unless we are going to see GLOBAL economic growth.
This time it really is different. New tax laws and lower regulations must be considered in the formula.
Tax laws haven’t changed much in 30 years, and when they did it was just tinkering around the edges.
Look at how the corporations have reacted, uber liberal Apple most of all, bringing back money from overseas that will be injected into our economy.
Money is the fuel of the economic engine, and it’s just getting warmed up!...................
Same with me. Won’t bet against the market but none of old rules, you know like earnings per share, seem to matter any more.
Housing starts up over 11% last quarter. That really drives the economy at least in my neck of the woods. This bull market won’t slow down for a while, IMO.
Nope. Facts, numbers, don’t mean anything. Only “expectations” and some sort of unidentifiable “enthusiasm” investors have for this or that.
Which is why I now understand the electoral betting odds failed to signal Trump and will continue to fail. If stock investors basically rely on common fad like principles, so do investors in election bidding. They are not looking at anything new or creative. They are just seeing and projecting what the talking heads, most of them Democrat, are talking about. They are working on the basis of popular assumptions. And I had actually thought they were doing something careful, like research, to come to their conclusions.
Look at Netflix. You cannot argue it is still a growth company and it trades well over 150 times earnings.
Sure. But this isn't the printed cash that was running up the index during the kenyan's administration
Yes, though I lived through times where construction was making up more than 10% of economic growth, wondering how sustainable is a market that depends on that high a level of residential building.
I’m not sure the reward would be worth the risk, trying to time a 6% pullback. IF it was a 20% pullback, maybe.
Don’t forget to put the taxes on top................
Residential building is slowly growing to 1.3 million housing starts. The high was over 2 million in 2005. The low was .485 million(485,000) in 2009.
New home construction has changed to a much heavier percentage of multifamily as opposed to single family. As our population ages the older folks want to sell the 2500-3500 square foot house and move into a smaller 2 bedroom home/condo. Also, the younger people are not buying the McMansions. Many 20-30 somethings are not having kids. Therefore, they do not need bigger houses. Many prefer to not be tied to a single family house in the suburbs.
We have 300 million people in these United States. Based on that most economists state we need to build 1.4-1.5 million homes just to keep up with population. Residences on the average need to be replaced every 75 years. The changes I discussed above are what have contributed to the slow growth in construction. This is good long term. Regionally, there will always be some areas that are a lot busier than others. The fastest growing state as a percentage is Idaho. The state that lost the most population is Illinois.
As I posted a day or two ago, we have been in a spate of market moves where the DOW opens high, then trails off at closing. Day after day. This is an indication of profit taking, not an imminent correction. However, there will always be corrections as no tree goes to the sky. There is a name for people who try to make money by timing the market’s moves. ‘Broke or about to be.’ Buy and hold.
they matter. a lot
Look at companies individually and there are still some stocks selling "at good prices". You just have to look at the historical data, compare it with earnings and what the company is doing with it's capital.
The biggest blunder I've made over the last 10 years was buying Gold. It is there but it is just a reserve for capital and isn't earning me anything.
There are stocks of companies with very little debt, growth rate over the last 5 years of >50% and selling for less than there average PE/G.
You just have to do your research and trust your numbers.
I do admit that I'd like to have a nice 10% correction or even a 30% correction. Just put in your stop-limit orders on your gainers and you've protected some of your profits. If you don't sell then just think about a 5-6 year window.
It's just that people try to "get rich quick" as opposed to "get rich slowly". Just don't lose money and let the greatest gift, "compounding interest" do it's work.
blah, blah, blah. if any of these outfits actually had a “signal” that worked, there is no way in hell that they’d share it with the hoi polloi ...
besides, the Trump economy is just going to keep accelerating through the roof ...
That was my initial take as well; as though their fingers were hopefully crossed.
This is a little different in that it only measures from 2002. Market - and the underlying tax structure - looks a lot different now than it did under BushII and BO.
A better predictor might be to look at the early 80s or mid-60s. Or, how large inflows of cash have affect the market over the long term.
A 16-year horizon is miniscule.
Yes as an indicator.
Interesting. That makes sense. Yes, where we live trying to find a 5 bedroom house is very difficult. Plenty of apartment and condo construction.
If I were not fully invested and had money to invest I echo your view that any correction is a buy opportunity.
Yes, BofA, the same ones that have all the signs in their lobby for latino accounts. The same BofA that used to be Nations Bank, my old bank, and then became the one where the kid behind the counter remarked, “I wish I had that balance in my account” whereupon I told him to get his supervisor and then told the supervisor to cut me a single cashier’s check for the balance of all three of my accounts.
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