What was the vote turnout like in Montgomery and Jefferson? How many votes are we talking about there?
In 2016 (which is running x1.5-x2.0 the total votes approx than this year) the breakdown was:
Montgomery - 61/39 (Dem/GOP)
Jefferson - 52/48 (Dem/GOP)
The outstanding votes (approx) to count in these counties is:
Montgomery - 60K
Jefferson - 90K
If the percentages tightens to be closer to the traditional breakdown in those two counties then Moore wins. If they stay 8-2 in favor of Jones then he probably wins. Need more votes to see if that will happen but the surrounding counties, while Jones is performing about 10% better than Crumpton did against Shelby in 2016, he isn’t performing so much better that we should automatically assume the 8-2 breakdown will hold. If it does then it shows that the cities were mobilized to deliver the win for the Democrat.
Just passing along my quick analysis. It is not as over as NY Times is assuming, but it could end up there if the cities continue to deliver more votes than the historical average for Jones.