Dem lead in generic ballot polls worries GOP

The Hill ^ | November 26, 2017 | John Kamisar

[Pinkbell]

Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads - 10.7 percent.

Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest the RCP's average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.

It's a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump's sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.

"It's always stupid to make firm predictions in anything, whether it be politics or the Super Bowl. But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction" said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.

"What we've seen so far this year that the constant is massive Trump unpopularity, a growing unpopularity, and we are starting to see that electorally. Knowing there's never going to be a Donald Trump pivot in any sense, what would tell us that anything in this midterm is different?"

Democrats are pointing to promising results from the off-year elections earlier this month as a promising sign for 2018.

A resounding win by the Democrat in Virginia's gubernatorial race, as well as strong showings among suburban voters, topped the headlines. But there was more promise down the ballot in other states, too.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats cleaned up in most of the "collar counties" that make up the Philadelphia suburbs. Voters elected Democrats to serve on the Delaware County council for the first time since 1980. Democrats saw similar success in other nearby counties like Chester County, and local Democratic candidates specifically pointed to Trump as one reason for their success. Most of those suburbs are represented by Republicans.

[Phillyred]

Why would anyone want to vote republican...other than the Trump-like candidates who are actually trying to get things done? We need to get rid of these scumbag do-nothings! They know Trump needs them, because the alternative is even worse, as hard as that is to believe.

[blackberry1]

Take a deep breath. This is from the Hill.

Conservative GOP voters are upset with their own. Of course. That’s why you’ll see a huge realignment within the party.

What’s more, the Democrats will pay a special price in the 2018 Senate elections because of the past 8 years under Obama. Trump had no path to 270 and won despite all the garbage spewed by the media. Do you really believe the GOP is in deep trouble and the rust belt voters are going to run back to the Dems??

This is fiction is more laughable than the whole Russia Russia hysteria.

[Pinkbell]

I agree, and I understand that person’s frustration, but $50 is not worth the Supreme Court.

It will be a major disaster for the GOP with the working class (Trump’s constituency) if the middle class don’t get across the board tax cuts, though. It’s those people who really go to bat for Trump. It’s those people that will feel betrayed if they are let down. They delivered the election to Trump but will go Democrat again if they need to because many also voted for Obama.

[jmaroneps37]

Democrats have “led” generic polls since the 1920s why do tjey keep losing? Theh lose BIG in what clunts ENTHUSIASM Genericpolls are who do u want to win not who will ypu actually get up off your lay ass and vote for?

[Pinkbell]

Well, your paper is liberal as you say. I don’t know if that is typical fare for that paper, but the leftist hysteria on Twitter is to the point that they are convinced Trump is the second coming of Hitler and he’s working with Putin to take down the country. You think it sounds ridiculous. I used to laugh at first, but guess what? These people are serious. Ironically, they also say he’s inept at the same time. The logic gap there is astounding.

The media has a lot of the narrative right now. That’s why I would love to see the Republicans on the offense with investigations and legislation. I would also like to see the White House put out a list of Trump’s accomplishments and do a Fake News Tracker to list all fake news (liberals think he only calls it fake because it’s negative).

[AndyJackson]

The disturbing prospect I keep pondering, though, is perhaps they don't want to get anything done

Perhaps?

Smell the coffee. Many of us have known this since the failure of the Republican majority to hold Obama in place. A lot of Trump's support comes from folks who already cottoned onto this.

[riri]

It all 50 states and it was done by design.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

I will not donate to the republican party I throw it in the trash, when they board the trump train and start getting things done I will come back

With regards to the general elections, do you think President Trump will do better with a Democrat Congress that is out to impeach him?

[daler]

I'm wondering, if after all the piling on we've seen with President Trump, any other president will ever be revered and respected again.

I know it will now be very difficult for me to ever cut another Democrat president any slack whatsoever.

[SkyPilot]

Donald Trump said during a rally in Scranton, PA on the eve of the election:

"We will massively cut taxes for the middle class, the forgotten people, the forgotten men and women of this country, who built our country."

"We will save and protect Social Security and Medicare."

"Tax relief will be concentrated on the working and middle class taxpayer. They will receive the biggest benefit and it won't even be close."

The current GOP Tax Bill (both House and Senate versions) will do the OPPOSITE of what Trump promised.

If Trump and the GOPe do not change those bills dramatically, the Democrats are going to clean up in the next election.

Mark my words.

[Pinkbell]

I intend to treat the next Democrat President with the respect they gave Trump and no more.

[Mariner]

If the GOP passes either of these tax bills close to what they are now, I will do my part of unelect Republicans.

Because they will have raised my taxes more than ANY Democrat ever did!

[Mariner]

“Why does this always happen? Why do the Republicans sit there and allow the Democrats to spew out the same narrative without retort that they don’t care about the little guy? Trump was able to appeal to the little guy this past election, but the margin was thin, and the Democrats are going to try to take back those working class voters by saying that Trump/GOP plans will be bad for them. “

It’s not hard to pin that on Congressional Republicans.

80% of the tax cuts go to Corporations under their plan. 11% goes to the Middle class, and 9% to the poor in rebates.

Democrats WILL get those working class voters if this tax plan passes.

Guaranteed.

[Mariner]

“The GOP has to die to allow the next thing to be born.”

First, the GOP must die.

Everything else comes after that.

[Pollster1]

If the GOP doesn’t regain lost ground, they will have to start keeping some of their promises to voters before the 2018 election. That would ruin McConnell’s day, and Paul Ryan’s day too.