Posted on 11/17/2017 4:42:27 AM PST by ThinkingBuddha
A Fox News Poll of 649 likely voters in Alabama released on Thursday and conducted between Monday and Wednesday of this week shows Democratic candidate Doug Jones with an eight point lead over Republican candidate Judge Roy Moore in the December 12 special election for the Alabama U.S. Senate seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, 50 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.5 percent margin of error. That poll stands in striking contrast to a Fox10/Strategy Research poll of 3,000 likely voters in Alabama released on Wednesday and conducted on Monday of this week that shows Moore with a six point lead over Jones, 49 percent to 43 percent, with a two percent margin of error.
The 14 point differential between the two polls conducted over the same three day period contributes to the great uncertainty surrounding the election thrown into chaos by unsubstantiated allegations of sexual harassment made against Judge Moore over the past week by several women.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which includes those two polls as well as three recent additional polls, shows the race is a virtual tie, with Moore having an eight tenths of one percent lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
A Democrat oversample which inaccurately quantifies the demographics and a small sample size sure looks like a push poll to me.
My guess is that if they are not already anti-Moore, they will eventually find their way to support him.
Good catch. Hopefully this gets the attention it deserves.
Having said that, one thing I’ve learned over the years is that it’s important to pay attention to the trend with specific polls. For example, if Rasmussen, using the same methodology and the same sampling, shows a relative decrease or a relative increase, then that says something to me. But comparing one poll to another is, to me, really an irrelevancy.
Democrat over sample.
Moore is going to bring it home, running away some 5 to 8 points over his opponent.
The smear campaign is actually working to elevate Moores standing. Call it the “Trump effect.” THe polls were very wrong about Donald Trumps winning the primary and the election itself.So it is with Moore.
The voters of Alabama are not as stupid as the MSM and Mitch McConnell think. They now a smear when they see one.
Steve Bannon has been doing good work!
649 is a poor sample size and skewing to the Dems in a state like Alabama is intentional bid.
Bias
Fox News is just as bad as the others; they’re just less in-your-face about it.
A lot of folks used to think Fox News was “conservative” but the Trump trashing exposed them during the debate-primary season last year.
I think they did come around on Trump but that’s because the GOP Establishment machine lined up in the end to support his election as President.
Now they are in the Moore bashing business for their big business political machine masters.
I sent Moore money since I saw the Republican Senate election committee went back on their agreement to pay for Moore’s campaign.
They are sabotaging a Republican simply because he thinks the leadership of the Senate has let the Conservatives and American people down.
Proof, why no Senate tax bill before Thanksgiving. And why
not make it retroactive to when President Trump took office last January.
McConnell the Mc Turdle should step down. Also, I hear they are working on GUN CONTROL WITH DEMS. WTF????
Anything under 900 isn’t worth the time to read.
The devil is in the methodology. Which is why the enemedia makes the info such a PITA to find.
So then, if you randomly strip out D and I responses to get those numbers down to the real ratio of R/D/I, the results would go back to 10pt. lead for Moore.
The important Fox evening news hours are pro-Trump. The crap programs that begin about noon ET, no so much. Decidedly anti-Trump: Cavuto, Smith, Perino. Ironically, for an entity that calls itself a news organization there is not a single hour-long program devoted to the day’s domestic and international “hard” news. For that, with all its biases, one can turn to BBC-America.
Any poll that will not release its demographics to the public is unreliable and political. That is true no matter which side it is on. It’s too easy for them to tell you how many males, how many females, how many Republicans, how many Democrats, geographic location, etc, etc. We have no idea if all of these folks are Inner city respondents. We just don’t. And even the Republican Democrat break out in this poll article is an estimate based on percentages that are given. I went into the PDF file for this bowl and they gave nothing.
It’s not a question of oversampling or undersampling. Sample weighting corrects for that. And 649 is a fair enough sample size. What matters is what kind of respondent is being polled. If it’s just a poll of adults that could be non-voters, illegal aliens, who knows who? Only a poll of likely voters will produce credible numbers. That kind of poll is expensive and most news organization won’t pay for it.
About the only thing that could explain this is that the number of likely voters among Republicans has dropped considerably. I don’t know if I would believe that. In any case it’s about three and a half weeks to election day. A lot can change in that long of a time period.
“A Democrat oversample which inaccurately quantifies the demographics and a small sample size sure looks like a push poll to me.”
Oversampling of Dems in Alabama? It’s a senate race and if anything the over sample should be Republicans.
The Murdochs put out the word to Fox to get on the attack Roy Moore bandwagon or more heads will roll at Fox.
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