Trump lost Virginia pretty badly—by nearly 5 points. I’m not sure a rally for a establishment candidate like Gillespie would work (i.e. bring out enough MAGA voters to win).
If Gillespie wins it will be because he turns out enough country club and RINO voters in NOVA who refused to vote for Trump. And there were lots of those in Virginia in 2016. NOVA is one of the most affluent areas in USA.
A look at suburban northeastern and mid-Atlantic counties in 2016 shows Romney did better in most of them in 2004 than Trump did in 2016. Trump rode to victory on the backs of rural and white working class voters, not the upper crust suburban vote.
I hope Gillespie wins just so Dem morale continues to bump along the bottom.
Yeah. The media will try to make a big deal out of this, but there are plenty of reasons not to:
1. Democrats haven’t lost a stateside race in 8 years.
2. Trump got beat there by 5%.
3. Gillespie is not a Trumpian candidate, although he’s been trying a little more towards the end to be.
If Northam beat a pro-Trump candidate in a state that Trump won by 5%, then I would be concerned.
This is what I expect. If the margins are similar to the election, then it shows not much has changed.