I never believed Trump was for Strange other than as a deal for Senate votes. If he was, he had a very strange way of showing it.
I’m for the MAGA agenda, but Trump stands for it to me as the flag stands for the US. If I have to compromise on the agenda with Trump I will, because I trust him to have the long game in view. We never expect to get everything. With Trump we’re finally getting SOMETHING. That’s so much better than what was going to happen to us, I’ll stick with Trump and trust him to get for us the best deal he can.
I am sure you will show up to vote for him, but I have ZERO confidence that the 2 Million new and disenfranchised voters Trump brought to the voting box last November are going to show up for a GOPe candidate.. even if Trump campaigns for them.
A GOPe candidate has ZERO credibility with those 2 Million or so voters, they spent the last 30-40 years ignoring, or worse yet, advocating against the stand most of the MAGA voters voted on! If they were serious about these issues they would have done something about them for last 4 decades.. they didn’t.
GIllespie will get the GOP vote that always shows up, reliable republican and conservative voters... but that in and over itself isn’t enough to win... Even with the depressed turn out of an off year election, and NOVA turnout almost certainly being down. Trump can fly in and I am sure he will get great attended rallies, but I don’t believe for one minute those all important voters that voted for him, because of his MAGA agenda are going to show up for an GOPe guy, no matter what Trump says.
This is what folks just don’t get, Trump didn’t get elected because he’s Trump... his support is NOT a cult of personality, like Obama’s was... His support are for the policies he’s advocating and a GOPe candidate has ZERO credibility on those policies and therefor, believe that those new and disgruntled voters are going to show up en masse for a GOPe guy, is far far less likely, no matter what Trump says.
They know a Governorship doesn’t tilt the balance of power in the house or the Senate, so it won’t affect the MAGA agenda in washington one way or another.... and without MAGA being front and center, CREDIBLY in the race, I just don’t think Gillespie will get over the hump. He certainly isn’t going to lose by 7 points... that’s just flat out nonsense, but if all Gillespie gets are the regular GOP voters, I just don’t see how he gets over the hump, and the D holds by 1-3 points.
I will be happy to eat crow on this, but unless the D vote is FAR FAR FAR more depressed than I think it will be, I just have a very very hard time seeing a GOPe candidate getting those new MAGA voters to show up.
I hope I eat crow, I honestly do... but unless something breaks that race open from the generic ballot D vs R, which is what it is with these 2 candidates...I don’t see it flipping. Had a MAGA candidate been on the ballot, I would very comfortably predict the GOP taking the VA governorship... but that’s not what this race is. Its, essentially a Generic R vs Generic D.... R’s will be more motivated to show up since they are out of power and general Turnout will be low, because its an off year election... But I have a very hard time thinking Turnout will be THAT low, that just regular old GOP voters even with better turnout will overcome... They need those MAGA voters, and I just don’t see them en masse showing up for an Generic D vs R contest, especially one that holds no impact in the house or senate.
Time will tell