Posted on 09/17/2017 6:27:14 PM PDT by LS
Updated voter registration stats.
*These are all comparing November to the most current available---usually it's September. FL is up to date to the day. PA's last report was in May.
*The numbers represent NET gains or losses. In many cases, thought not all, both parties lost members (though indies have not gained, indicating voter roll purges, elimination of the dead & those who moved). In AZ and DE there were absolute gains.
*Party registration is not available for some key states: WI, MI, VA, TX, and MN. This makes it impossible to evaluate the trends with absolute certainty, but . . . as you see, it's pretty close to absolute.
AZ Rs net +11,314 since Nov. Both parties saw solid gains. Rs gained 24,919! So much for AZ "going blue."
CO D net +20. That's right, 20. Here's the bad news: since 2015, CO went from R+5 to D+1, but this is the first month it has flattened out, so maybe CO is ready to move back red a little.
DE Ds net +365 Both parties saw absolute gains.
FL Rs net +55,498 This is extremely important: both parties were down, but Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls since November, and Rs have gained EVERY single month, averaging a net gain of about 6,000 per month. At this rate, FL will be red by 2020.
IA Rs net +14,363 Here, again, Rs have gained every month.
ME Rs net +1,201 It's not a lot, but Trump lost ME by 23,000 votes. By election time 2020, this would more than swing that.
NC Rs +60,918 Like FL, NC has shown a steadily widening gap since November and another state where Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls in nine months.
NH Rs net +6,511 Another state where this almost certainly assures a Trump win. He lost NH by 2,700 votes (and we now know a lot of that was fraud.)
NJ Rs net +22,351 This was a shocker. Rs gained absolutely 287 voters while Ds lost 22,065. It's not a big enough trend to flip the state . . . yet.
NM Rs net +19,777 Another surprise. Rs gained about 2,000 just from two months ago. A very doable flip in 2020.
NV Rs net +19,799 Still another state where month by month Rs cut into the D voter advantage.
PA Rs net +101,000 This is old data from May, but it's still fun to report it.
In short, the Ds had only ONE state (DE) trending their way while CO, despite a net advantage, represents a serious downward trend for Ds from the previous year. Again, without MI, WI, VA, and TX especially, we can't say with total certainty, but as of now, if the election were held today, Trump would have about 320 electoral votes with NH and ME likely flipping, NM and NV being extremely close and expanding his lead bigly in FL, IA, AZ, and PA.
In NN, ME, NV and FL, if current trends continue, these states would again be Republican states in 2020. Wait, did you notice something? AZ, NM, NV, FL are heavily Hispanic states . . . yet trending R?
This may be the result of what Steve Bannon declared as the achilles heel of the libdems: identity politics. I can imagine hispanics being pissed off by Team Lib's BLMers, who think hispanic lives don't matter.
It has always amazed me that although the left lumps blacks and Hispanics together as a group, both of those groups hate the other far more than they hate the whites.
I do not think anyone would want to live through a full grown mix up between the city gangs if it ever started.
How much of that is from Dems registering as Rs so that they can sabotage R primaries? We will find out in Nov 2017 and Nov 2018.
That possibility is another reason why conservatives need to find DINOs to run in 'Rat primaries.
If they voted in the first Primary, they cannot switch for the runoff.
These numbers certainly sound encouraging, but we must keep in mind Mark Twain’s warning: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
It concerns me that there is a strong possibility that the lion’s share of the net gains by the GOP in FL and NC, and perhaps even in PA and IA, are because voters who were registered Democrats for historical reasons but who have been voting Republican for years merely made the change official in their voting registration. LS, do you know how many of the net Republican gains are due to newly registered voters (most of whom, presumably, would be just over 18) and how many are due to existing voters switching their registration from D to R? And do you have the data by county? If the GOP got a bing swing towards it in, say, Miami-Dade, Pinellas or Orange it would be far likelier that the net gain in party registration could result in GOP gains in the voting booth than if the net increase in registration disproportionately took place in Duval, Escambia or other North Florida counties whose GOP voting results far exceed their party registration.
But positive news is always welcome, even if it may not be as good as it seems at first blush.
We’re winning... nice to see more proof.
And don’t forget that the CO libs passed the law to allow Independents to vote in either primary.
The same would be true for NC. While it was considered a battleground state in Nov, Democrat registration advantage notwithstanding, the Dems have been losing in voter registration since then. So, the Dem position is weaker and the GOP position is stronger since Nov.
Hope that makes sense.
Exactly right. That’s what “net change” vs “absolute” increases mean.
GOP behind in registrations everywhere but AZ, IA, and NH of the states I looked at.
Behind a ton in PA and a lot in FL & NC & Trump won all three
I don’t know. Remember in places like PA & FL, you bave absolute declines so what this tells me is Ds losing voters like crazy.
Yes, county data available but just getting this took time.
Go to FL SECSTATE website. See what you find.county data may only be updated through 2016. In NV, though, counties are current.
No. What this mostly represents is collapse of D party.
09/16/17 D 2,640,729 R 2,056,222 L 33496 U 2,058,201 11/08/16 D 2,733,188 R 2,086,942 L 32333 U 2,065,687
I’ll wait until after Election Day 2017 results are in, before I start feeling elated.
Hi prof, I flunked that class and my brain isn’t working today (ugh) so might you (or someone else) explain this “absolute” thing?
I hope that around the next election time POTUS will Tweet out a warning to all illegals reminding that if they vote, they will move to the front of the deportation line!
Thanks for report.
Sure. If you go from seven to ten, that’s an absolute gain of three.
If you go from seven to six, but your opponent goes from 10 to five, that’s a relative net gain of four-—you lose one, he loses five.
Many of these states show FALLING registrations (normal after an election). People die, move, get disgruntled, mostly on the D side. But what we are seeing is that the Rs are gaining relatively in great numbers vs. the Ds, and in some states such as AZ are actually absolutely gaining (up an actual 24,000, net 19000 after you subtract D gains).
Clear?
Reasonable, but the fact is these are VERY predicting results. I used these throughout late 2015 and all through 2016 to show the polls were absolute crap.
Registrations are used to set up POLLING SAMPLES. As many here have pointed out, the 2016 samples were wrong (obviously) mainly because they were using the wrong Democrat/Republican samples. They used 2012 numbers when they should have been using 2016 numbers (which were STILL a little low for Trump, but would have given you the overall right answer.)
EXCEPT: Now the numbers have changed again in 8.5 months and all in the same direction, meaning that the 2016 numbers are now off for polling.
The Democrats are not ashamed about voter fraud. They know it exists even though they deny it. They invented it and have perfected it over the years
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