Posted on 08/20/2017 8:32:42 PM PDT by Lorianne
Every time the U.S. economy has seem poised to break out of its slow-growth, low-inflation trend, something has undercut its momentum.
The federal fiscal-cliff and debt-limit fights, an oil patch recession, the global financial market spillovers from China, and a pullback from peak auto sales all have taken a turn as the economic headwind du jour.
Yet what some have called "secular stagnation" or "the new normal" is largely about America — along with much of the rich world — turning gray. Aging has cut 1.25 percentage points from both trend GDP growth and the neutral real interest rate in the U.S. since 1980, with most of that coming since the early 2000s, according to Federal Reserve researchers.
So far, sluggish growth has been overcome by persistence. As the current economic expansion enters its ninth year, the jobless rate is at a 16-year low while the S&P 500 index and other major averages are up sharply so far this year. Yet GDP growth likely will continue to slow. Meanwhile, big institutional investors and policymakers increasingly worry about what lies ahead as an inevitable battle plays out over how to pay for massive retirement promises to baby boomers and how much to raise taxes on Gen Xers and millennials.
It won't help that today's slow growth may soon look like the good old days. David Doyle, North American economist at Macquarie Research, notes that the oldest baby boomers are in their 70s, when workforce participation rapidly dwindles. "Demographics will soon act as a severe constraint on potential output growth," Doyle wrote recently.
America aged gracefully early this century, with the working-age population (20-64) expanding much more than the senior population. But the tide shifted in 2012. Over the coming two decades, the senior population is projected to swell by 30 million vs. just 15 million for working-age adults.
In 20 years, the whole country will look like Florida — only older. Now 20% of Floridians are 65 and older vs. 15% for the country as a whole. Two decades from now, 21% of Americans will be seniors, according to Social Security Administration projections.
SNIP
Not a problem.
Bring in millions of migrants and put them on welfare.
Problem solved.
Crime will go down,so it’s not all gloom and doom. :-)
.
Even migrants grow old.
we're not drags on society, but we darn well are the supporters with all our taxes...
Good start.
Then legislate that every WalMart employ 100 greeters at $15/hr, but they can’t raise prices.
I've been keeping these kinds of hours as a software/hardware engineer since 1977. Early on, it was more hardware and teaching microprocessors courses at the local college. The extra income allowed me to pursue and earn a fixed wing private pilot license.
I have been a net taxpayer every year since age 16. Taxation steals between 50 and 60 percentage of my earned income. Obama's crash of the markets wiped out half of my 401k, so I'll be working longer than I wanted. No big deal. I still run harder and faster than anyone else on the program. As long as I can tolerate the hours, I intend to keep working at that level.
No personal ‘right’ is legitimate if it leads to societal destruction.
Nearly all Western societies are contracepting, aborting, and buggering themselves away.
A. The Unemployment figures are a fraud.
B. We have an inappropriate skill-set among the Gen-X and Millenials. As any manufacturing company how hard it is to get skilled machinists or line-workers who can pass a drug-test. Instead we have a workforce full of college grads seeking a high-paying position to pay off their college loans. We’re in a world of hurt until something is done about this.
No problem—we have robots taking over most jobs, remember?
Only this big group of elderly need the guaranteed income the wonks are pushing, and they already have it—social security!
“well I’m still working at age 63, and probably will go at least one more year, maybe more...”
I’m 67 and still work full time as I watch the youngsters text message every five minutes.
This is a presentation of gross numbers that does not consider the make up of the groups coming of age. All people are not alike. Many, in fact too many, are obese.
Obesity will kill before the Florida like disparity can occur.
I’m seeing a lot of obese people creeping into their 80s. Modern medicine is keeping us alive longer.
Awesome post. For me, Retirement was always something the Dems created to take more taxes and line their pockets in the senate.. banking revolving door. It’s not Biblical. I’m can see the need to go part time after 70, but that’s about it.
This is nothing but the Cheap labor Express handing out sugar coated turds this morning .
Fixed it.
The answer is to bring in millions of illegals and they will sit around getting taxpayer money. Yep that will spur growth.
I don’t really want to argue what you are saying, but I guess I’m going to. Small & mid-size manufacturing concerns don’t have a whole lot of power to set proper pricing for their products. We lose jobs to competitors who underbid us then turn out a crappy product. The jobs return to us after those experiences, but leave again when we try to bump up our rates to cover costs or when another desperate company comes along with teaser pricing. It’s really hard to just say, “I’m going to increase my prices so that I can pay my workers more.” Especially when you don’t have any idea what your health insurance costs are going to be next year.
What yo are saying is market capitalism doesn’t work.
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