The French system:
System of elections - they have run-off elections. Presuming nobody gets 50 percent in round 1, the top two advance to the run-off.
System of government - they have a President and a National Assembly. The President is considered to be a strong president, not a figurehead; But, the ministers of government (cabinet officers) are determined by the National Assembly. The new National Assembly will be elected later this year.
Leaked poll - polls were supposed to be shut off during the several days prior to the election. This “leaked pol” is described as Belgian.
Everybody thinks Le Pen and Macron will finish 1st and 2nd (probably, but not necessarily in that order). But, the situation is dynamic and there are reasons to think Fillon or the communist will edge Macron for the run-off.
Everybody also thinks Le Pen will lose badly to whomever she faces in the 2nd round. This is not clear to me. Depending on whom she faces, she could seek support of one or both of the losers. For example, in the second round, she may be able appeal to the hard-left on the basis of shared antagonism of the EU. Or. she may be able to appeal to the center-right on the basis of pro-growth economic policies.
LePen polls strongest vs. the conservative Fillon because many of the Socialist and Communist voters would happily vote for her as a fellow secularist socialist. If she became President she would have tremendous difficulty governing since her party will have only a small number of seats in the French Assembly. She would need Socialist support. Who knows what she would have to do in exchange for that?
Thank you