Posted on 04/22/2017 4:36:04 PM PDT by blam
This post from Sam Harris, an entrepreneur, engineer, and former data scientist at the U.S. Air Force, originally appeared on Quora as an answer to the question, "Is the United States on the brink of a political revolution?"
No. We don't have enough teenagers.
When I was an officer in the Air Force, I was a data scientist, and at one point we were tasked with determining what level of violence in Iraq could be considered "normal" so that we could declare victory and leave with dignity.
Obviously, the base level of violence in Iraq would be higher than in Sweden, but precisely how much higher and why? These were the questions.
We did analysis on hundreds of factors across centuries worth of data from hundreds of countries to determine what drove the levels of violence in a society. The worst violence levels are obviously during civil wars and government collapse.
We looked at wealth inequality, famine, disease, number of children per woman, infant mortality, median GDP, average GDP … literally hundreds of factors and their cross-dependencies that numbered in the quadrillions — think average GDP combined with median life expectancy combined with infant mortality combined with … you get the idea.
What we found was that the most significant factor was the number of individuals aged 13–19 relative to the number of individuals aged over 35. If the teenage group ever exceeded the over 35 group, violence increased to the point there was a very high chance of civil war. Furthermore, the opposite was true. If the 35+ year-olds outnumbered the teenagers, there was no chance of civil war.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The Simple Reason Why a Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable
If the so-called experts are all predicting one thing, then the opposite is probably going to occur soon
mexicans and others would never threaten the handouts. There will be no revolution. If you have an IQ of 80, revolution would never come into your mind
The problem the left has is huge. They no longer have the resources, the power, or the moral gravitas to be victorious. They are mostly looking foolish.
It's not that they don't want to be like Pol Pot, or start another reign of terror, they just don't have the capacity right now.
Let's pray they never do, because these are awful people.
“We did analysis on hundreds of factors across centuries worth of data....”
The analysis is flawed right there.
“What we found was that the most significant factor was the number of individuals aged 13–19 relative to the number of individuals aged over 35. If the teenage group ever exceeded the over 35 group, violence increased to the point there was a very high chance of civil war.”
People are living much longer now than they traditionally have “through the centuries”, so of course there’s going to be a much larger number of people in the above 35 category.
Data SCIENTIST?
If the teenage group ever exceeded the over 35 group, violence increased to the point there was a very high chance of civil war. Furthermore, the opposite was true. If the 35+ year-olds outnumbered the teenagers, there was no chance of civil war.
We had a non-violent one just a few months ago.
Which group is better armed?
Someone should tell him we were invaded and taken over by the country next door while he was busy crunching numbers on Iraq.
And they got lotsa teenagers, among other idiot correlations.
Maybe guys like him could do their job and protect our borders instead of worrying about the Islamic Republic of Iraq.
Just in the nick of time!
> Data SCIENTIST?
Here’s the joke in the community.
Q: What is a Data Scientist?
A: A Statistician under 35.
Why do these people consider teenagers the prime group of fighters?Us older guys have a lot of experience with the practical application of violence.
Reminds me of the statistician who did a study of all adults and found that, on the average, each possesses one testicle and one breast capable of producing milk.
The corn dole...
No wonder they are having Science Marches these days.
You took the words right out of my mouth. On the very last job of my career I was a statistician, data collection, machinist, product testing, lab work, designer, and equipment troubleshooter. And all these younger HR types think us old guys are worthless, lol.
The question I actually answered was: What causes huge levels of violence? My answer was: Having too many teenagers.
A very good article and I would encourage all to take the time to read it.
Rebellious and easily influenced.
Why do these people consider teenagers the prime group of fighters?
Don’t you remember being young and stupid?
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