its mid JAN and it has been rather dry....
lake level only at 703 feet....last year at this time it was around 850 feet and they opened up the spillway for the first time on jan 13th
the 8 station rainfall index is at 16.4 inches or 71% of normal to date..last year at this time it was about 50 inches
The max average daily inflow so far has only been about 19,000 cfs back in November...
The daily outflows from the power plant have been 2000-4500 cfs ...
a rather wet medium term pattern but since they can increase the outflow from the power plant to 12,000 cfs if needed....
there is a growing chance the spillway will not have to be used this year since the lake has to rise another 150 feet or so, including with the extra outflow capacity of the power plant, to get to 850ish feet
The only way that is possible is if they get a extreme wet period of about 8 weeks started now like what happened in 1982-83 or 1997-98...the rainfall intensity of those systems were even greater then last year although the duration wasn’t all winter...record inflow of over 240,000 cfs was with the 1997-98 event
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3629902/posts
Memo Shows Seven State-Operated Dams Need a Closer Look in Wake of Oroville Dam Incident
“Each of the dams listed in the memo—Del Valle Dam, Castaic Dam, Pyramid Dam, Antelope Dam, Frenchman Dam, Grizzly Valley Dam and Cedar Springs Dam—is 45 years old or older. They’re all earthen dams, or earth and rock dams, similar in construction to Oroville Dam.”