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Friday's December Jobs Report Will Answer Two Big Questions
Investors Business Daily ^ | December 5, 2017 10:38 AM ET | JED GRAHAM

Posted on 01/06/2017 2:52:30 AM PST by expat_panama

The employment report out on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show that the economy added 175,000 jobs in December, continuing the solid trend of recent months.

But the real focus will be on wage growth and the jobless rate, which both delivered big surprises in last month's report.

After the rise in average hourly earnings hit a seven-year high of 2.8% in October, wages backslid in November, slipping 0.1% and bringing the annual rate down to 2.5%. Friday's report could indicate whether that was just a statistical quirk.

The consensus view is that December's report will show a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings from November. Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and Thomas Simons expect a 0.4% jump, lifting annual wage gains to a new cycle high of 2.9%.

In November, the jobless rate surprisingly fell to a nine-year low of 4.6% from 4.9%...

...Can the job market accommodate President-elect Donald Trump's fiscal fuel without overheating? That won't be clear for some time... ...how fast the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming year.

IBD'S TAKE: The Federal Reserve, long worried about paltry growth, has shifted to the role of traffic cop. Now the key question is whether Donald Trump's fiscal fuel will raise the economy's speed limit, allowing for faster growth without pushing inflation much above the Fed's comfort zone.

On Thursday, ADP reported that private employers added 153,000 jobs in December, somewhat less than expected. The ADP has an uneven record of predicting Labor's nonfarm payrolls. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims tumbled by 28,000 to 235,000 in the week ended Dec. 260,000.

Incoming evidence from corporate earnings reports suggests that wage pressures are continuing to rise moderately...

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; government; investing
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To: spintreebob

Eventually there will be a minimum salary for everyone as jobs go away. $40k? $60k? I don’t know and it might not be for another 20+ years. But it will happen by force if necessary as everyone is tired of sub $1k per month jobs.


21 posted on 01/06/2017 4:22:10 AM PST by Monty22002
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To: Monty22002

Do you work there?


22 posted on 01/06/2017 4:22:31 AM PST by shelterguy
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To: expat_panama
Wait a couple of weeks and they will revise the numbers down.

Typical of the 0bama administration and the MSM

23 posted on 01/06/2017 4:23:54 AM PST by TYVets
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To: wrench

Probably some temp Christmas hiring in there too.


24 posted on 01/06/2017 4:24:52 AM PST by lilypad
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To: shelterguy

No, I just now how the unemployment rate is made. Phone surveys. If you have some other idea, you’ll have to link to it cause my knowledge on this is a biz degree and experience.


25 posted on 01/06/2017 4:25:50 AM PST by Monty22002
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To: Zenjitsuman

Yes, Trump has been talking about the “real” UE level for some time.


26 posted on 01/06/2017 4:29:20 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Monty22002

So you don’t work there.


27 posted on 01/06/2017 4:29:39 AM PST by shelterguy
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To: shelterguy

You’re a stubborn one. The unemployment *rate*, which I’ll highlight for you does not depend on who gets checks. The closest stat you’ll get from the government is the first time UI collectors.

The actual unemployment rate has nothing to do besides a phone survey that asks ‘are you working’ if yes, end call. Then ‘are you looking for a job’ if yes, you’re counted, if no end of call.


28 posted on 01/06/2017 4:35:35 AM PST by Monty22002
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To: wrench

Essentially beer money, nothing more.
= = = = = = = = = = =

And the problem is????

First things first...<: <: <:

Like ‘Rev Jim’ said - ‘I gave up smoking, drinking and drugs and have been saving my money. You can have it. I have thirty seven cents’


29 posted on 01/06/2017 4:42:06 AM PST by xrmusn ((6/98)" "If you see a civilian in cammies -- bump into him")
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To: expat_panama

Christmas hires, which will be gone by mid January. Won’t see an increase until after February. Then we may see a drop in useless government no work jobs. Better get that UE cut down fast. Or they won’t look for a job. Make it mandatory that they have a filled out form from any place they apply. That the prospective employer sends in. No more phone calls we looked for work. PROVE IT.


30 posted on 01/06/2017 4:56:23 AM PST by GailA (Ret. SCPO wife: suck it up buttercups it's President Donald Trump, not the hrc commie witch.)
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To: Doogle

Will the Bureau of Labor statistics tell the truth? IMO they have manipulated data to make Obama look good. It has become politicized just like most of the government bureaucracy.


31 posted on 01/06/2017 4:59:35 AM PST by kabar
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To: expat_panama

One of the first things the Trump team needs to do is release the real fiscal numbers pertaining to the US economy...where are we really at? No more pretend numbers. No more Wall Street horse sh!t “everything’s wonderful”. Establish the real baseline.


32 posted on 01/06/2017 5:10:18 AM PST by Mashood
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To: Monty22002

As long as you think so, that’s all that matters.


33 posted on 01/06/2017 5:11:13 AM PST by shelterguy
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To: expat_panama

One question that will be answered is will the press and all the lemmings keep paroiting the fake news jobs report numbers?


34 posted on 01/06/2017 5:35:36 AM PST by stockpirate (OBAMA MUST BE ON THE PAYROLL OF THE CLINTON FOUNDATION.)
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To: shelterguy

Well, you’ve certainly not given an alternative, so I win by a lazy default. You could try at least. I’ll just take the lame win and go on with things.


35 posted on 01/06/2017 5:45:31 AM PST by Monty22002
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To: Monty22002

You win the Internet Trophy of the day. Get a magnet, stick it to the fridge.


36 posted on 01/06/2017 5:57:39 AM PST by shelterguy
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To: stockpirate
all the lemmings keep paroiting the fake news jobs report numbers?

Here's what's just come out, let's see what they make of it:

Translation: the number of workers out of a job increased by 120,000 and the unemployment rate's gone up.

37 posted on 01/06/2017 6:28:46 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: GailA

The numbers are always seasonally adjusted to take factors like Christmas hiring into account. Has always been that way.


38 posted on 01/06/2017 6:29:08 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: expat_panama

Haven’t been around much the last 2 years but at least the conversation is the exact same as it was when I left :-)


39 posted on 01/06/2017 6:30:20 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
my bet is that it's about to.

Let me know what your take is but my thinking is that Trump is an adult, he's smart, and he knows how to make a sale. He succeeded at getting enough votes and now he'll be smart enough to do what will work. Example, before the election he said he'd boost spending on 'infrastructure' to almost a $T. Now that he's elected he's saying that it's a $T over ten years. This is less than what we're already spending but his fans don't seem to care. Also, notice also how the talk shifted from "quit NAFTA" to renegotiate it.

My thinking is that this is great! We get what we need and the gang thinks it got what they wanted.

40 posted on 01/06/2017 6:55:12 AM PST by expat_panama
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