I am guessing that long before 2029, there will be a decision not to cut benefits across the board for retirees, but to somehow change the system to make it solvent before that momentous time.
This would only happen, though, with great leadership and great American understanding. If no change to the system, this “third rail” of politics will turn out to severely bite us all.
By the way, thank you for your post and your explanation of a system people want to keep too complicated to understand.
It happened in 1983 with the Faustian bargain Reagan struck with Tip O'Neil. Benefits were cut, i.e., the age to collect full benefits was phased in over time from 65 to 67 and taxes increased. I suspect that the next reform of SS will be similar, i.e., a combination of benefit cuts and tax increases along with some sort of means testing.
SS is a pay as you go system, i.e., today's workers pay for today's retirees. In 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree; today there are less than three; and by 20230 the number will be down to two workers for every retiree. The longer we wait to reform SS, the more difficult and painful the solution will be.