Posted on 12/20/2016 3:02:00 AM PST by expat_panama
Economic growth has slowed since the election. What will happen to housing under President Trump?
Funny thing about the rally in U.S. stocks since the Nov. 8 election that has the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.20% approaching 20,000: The underpinning of optimism about a pickup in the U.S. economy it has been based on is slipping away.
Heh, heh, heh.
Faster than Republicans learn to love Russian espionage when their party’s presidential nominee is the intended beneficiary, fourth-quarter economic data are heading south. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s influential GDPNow forecasting tool, which predicted 3.1% annualized fourth-quarter growth on Election Day and rose to 3.6% as more October data rolled in, is now predicting 2.6% growth. The New York Fed’s NowCast puts fourth-quarter growth at 1.7%, and the first quarter of 2018 at 1.8%, about half the third quarter’s 3.2% pace, thanks to bad data last week on November housing starts and industrial production...
...almost as if someone thought the election meant a new president might raise mortgage rates with inflationary fiscal policy and limit industrial exports by starting trade wars with Mexico or China, then began building fewer houses and making less stuff, since a quarter of U.S. manufactured goods are exported...
...The bull-market case is that prosperity means a few tenths of a point of extra near-term growth... ...Plus, doing a massive, deficit-exploding corporate tax cut Goldman says will be spent mostly on stock buybacks. All the while sticking it to exporters and hospitals through trade and health-care policy.
It’s a bet that corruption spurs growth, in other words. And that growth isn’t even happening as heralded. How much do you really want to bet on that?
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
I actually see this as a euphoria based rally and when the fundamentals smack everyone in the head in the morning, it could be a catastrophic fall. I have since the election.
Obama got a nobel prize just for winning and Trump got a stock market bump just for winning. Eventually there needs to be exposure of fundamentals that support the stock market climb, or it goes to lower than it was when it started. As long as Trump hits the ground running with tangible improvements to the business environment it might be fine, but this is where we say, getting elected is the easy part.
I’m expecting it to be forthcoming, but my comments above are more along the lines of what will probably happen if it doesn’t. And as I’ve said for several years, I think our problems, economically, are beyond a human solution. It will take divine intervention, e.g. a meteor strike, alien invasion, etc. to resolve the economic mess the world is in.
My take's beginning to go more along the line that we're hearing from the same leftist pundits we had around in '03, but this time we got T's tweets instead of W's "new-tone".
Bottom line: fantastic contrarian buying opportunity!
“Heh, heh, heh” Who is this Clinton Toady?
So you have posted a bunch of lefty sourced nonsense articles about how miserable it will be under Trump.
Why?
Additionally, is he saying that Trump will fail unless he continues to manipulate economic data the way Odumbo did?
I think with really ramped up energy production and the ability to export we can step right over the upcoming rescession. Through in a shiat load of illegals on the dole being deported, trade balance, entitlement spending cuts and boom times are here.
I read for a little bit and went back to see who the author was. Not Racheal Madow as I suspected.
I find it curious that before the election there was lots of doom and gloom. Economic endicies pointed to poor performance in at least 8 of 10 areas. Durable goods, manufacturing sectors, services....and so forth. I tracked them on a weekly basis for at least a year. All indications pointed to a recessionary period ahead.
Now, Trump has been elected...now all the rosey outlooks, markets soaring, whew hew....life is good.
I don’t buy all this. Scary in fact. Feels like a deception is being perpetrated to give the perception that all is well, then the bottom will drop out. Reason I say this? The progressives/globalist will not just roll over and allow Trump to blaze a new trail, to have his way.
I believe the games will begin in earnest a few weeks from now. Trump will be dealing with economic crisis around the world and attempt to keep our economy rolling along.
Pse help me out by going over my posts again and letting me know where we went in different directions. The only two posts I offered here were no. 8 where I pinging the investor's list and number 22 where Lion Den Dan and I were talking about how the article was a good sign for investors.
Don't get me wrong, the writer was bonkers --no doubt about it. What we got to remembe is that when it comes to investing and understanding markets we need very much to understand w/ 20 20 vision just what kind of people are in the market place and what info they're using for making their decisions. Experience tells us that most info's out there for everyone to see and not everyone is willing to look at all of it. I can't afford to hide from the fact that there're a lot of idiot pundits w/ their idiot followers. In fact, what it means for me is a fabulous buying opportunity.
This isn't the first time half the U.S. traders have their heads up their buts, and it probably won't be the last. Is this a great country or what!
Gloom. Despair and Agony on me. - Deep dark depression;
excessive misery! Gloom. Despair and Agony on me.
Hee-Haw
Me too. Economist? Hardly! I think Propagandist or Marxist Cheerleader is a more apt job title.
“Economic growth has slowed since the election. What will happen to housing under President Trump?”
This sentence is 100% misleading, as are most all statements, at ANY TIME, that use the phrase “under President ___________” (you fill in the blank).
What would be more honest and correct as to economic growth would be “what will happen to housing ‘under’ rising interest rates spurred by the Federal Reserve”, which has zero, zip, zilch to do with ANY president.
90% of economic activity actually, most often, has little to with being “under” the occupant of the White House. Yes, on the margins of taxes and regulations there are positives and negatives produced by presidents. The negatives are often immediate and most, not all, overcome in time, while the positives are usually long term and wind up being felt during and credited as “under” some successor in the White House.
Yellen et all funded Obama, helping to keep per4cieved cost if his expansion of the U.S. debt down. Now the Fed will help to put the blame for the long term cost of that debt on Trump, as they help raise the interest rates needed to keep turning already issued debt over.
In much of this current economy, situations will be “under conditions left by, or coming into being as a result of, Trump’s predecessor”.
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I think with really ramped up energy production and the ability to export we can step right over the upcoming rescession. Through in a shiat load of illegals on the dole being deported, trade balance, entitlement spending cuts and boom times are here.
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Normally I would agree with you but this recession will be far more synchronized globally than previous ones were. Demand will fall everywhere, so prices will fall. Also, energy is about 13% of spending, so even when we boost our own production and thus increase earnings, that does not move the needle all that much.
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