Well, no. Johnson was THE default option of neverTrumpers this time. We know that from internal audits of absentees. Right after the sextape hit, we found that R absentee ballots voting Johnson shot up. They later fell. So Johnson in fact pulled very, very big from Trump with the educated Republicans, especially women. Same in New Hampshire.
You’re making my point about Johnson. It wasn’t his name being on the ballot that got him votes (unlike McMullin in Utah who really was a special case). It was people’s opposition to Trump that got Johnson votes.
There is no getting around that Trump lost massive ground compared to Romney’s 2012 performance in AZ, relative to almost all other states. Hillary only gained ground on Obama in 13 states. AZ was the 4th biggest gain. And it’s the only one that matters because none of the others are states that really could swing. GA is the only one that might, but the Dem gains in GA, if the same margin of gain repeated, would still not be enough to swing it in 2020. AZ, on the other hand, only needs to repeat 2/3rds of its margin gain to flip the state in 2020.
It’s easy to say Trump has a great performance in the next 4 years and makes gains everywhere. That renders the debate moot. But the Dems are going to be working hard to defeat him in 2020 non-stop for 4 years. If Trump merely treads water or holds his ground, they will be targeting AZ as a major potential pick-up.