I agree with your observations. Rick Berg was my state rep when I lived in Fargo. Both my late parents and I worked on his campaign. He had been in Congress for only two years when he ran for the senate. Many of us wanted him to get more seasoning before running for higher office. Former Governor
Ed Shaffer would have won the race in a walk. I am not sure about Kevin Crammer.
Well, some members can make the jump from House to Senate after a single term. Steve Daines did it over in Montana, Tom Cotton in Arkansas is another. At the time, I had no particular reason to believe that Berg couldn’t pull it off. He did knock off Earl Pomeroy, which was no easy feat. Ed Schafer tried in 1990 (against Dorgan in his final House term) and was obliterated by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. That Schafer was able to make a comeback 2 years later and win the Governorship in a landslide was pretty remarkable.
However, some FReepers from both Montana and ND in their ground reports were sending out warnings that both Berg and Congressman Denny Rehberg (challenging Sen. Jon Tester) were not the shoo-ins that some of us thought they would be in 2012, and both ended up losing very winnable races.
Personally, I don’t think fmr. Gov. Schafer showed any interest in either Senate seat. I wish he had taken on either Byron Dorgan back in 1998 or Kent Conrad when Schafer’s 2nd term expired in 2000. That one seat was so important that it would’ve kept ZeroCare from being implemented back in 2009 in the Senate. Schafer was already 64 by 2012, a little on the older side to embark on a Senate career (why he would’ve been better off running at 50 or 52 in ‘98 or ‘00).
I had forgotten that Kevin Cramer had run in 2010 for the House, but he initially lost the nomination at the state convention to Berg (Cramer was perceived more aligned with the fledgling Tea Party while Berg was more establishment, which would be a contributing factor to his loss in ‘12, along with Rehberg in MT). In any event, Cramer won the open House race in 2012 by a 13% margin (far wider than Heitkamp’s 0.9% win over Berg), by 17% over ex-Gov. George Sinner’s son and by over 45+% last month (69%). That kind of a margin guarantees that Heitkamp is unlikely to get reelected over Cramer, indeed, a fluke victory over a weak candidate to begin with. Indeed, being offered a Cabinet post would provide her with a graceful exit.