Just One Thing Matters In Friday's Jobs Report

Investors Business Daily ^ | 12/2/2016 2:23 PM ET | JED GRAHAM

[expat_panama]

The U.S. economy likely added 175,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, Wall Street economists are estimating ahead of Friday's employment report out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The economy has a bit of momentum, the Federal Reserve is set to hike rates in two weeks and nothing in Friday's jobs report can possibly change that.

The real issue for markets is all about expectations. Investors are beginning to assess what the Trump fiscal package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending means for growth as well as inflation...

...in every single jobs report from here on out: How tight is the market for labor?

IBD'S TAKE: Here's why wage growth may be about to take off, though markets may not love it.

The clearest answer will come from the pace of average hourly wage growth, which accelerated to a cycle high 2.8% from a year ago in October. Higher wages tend to feed through at least partly to higher prices...

..."In response to the challenges finding workers, a number of firms continued to engage in partnerships with community colleges and...

...Productivity gains could alleviate some of the wage pressures and...

...key unknown is whether the 4.9% jobless rate is understating the amount of slack in the labor market because millions who have left the workforce could decide to return under the right conditions...

...a spike in labor demand from the Trump fiscal stimulus could be "a bidding war (for labor), driving up the rate of wage growth, with only a modest rise in participation."

That concern is why he's predicting an upsurge in inflation by the second half of 2018 that puts the brakes on a short-lived Trump boom.

[expat_panama]

Yikes,  the NASDAQ got nicked a % and a half in rising volume and IBD's calling the outlook "uptrend under pressure" (aka: yellow light, proceed w/ caution)!

Oh yeah, good morning everyone.

Anyway stock index futures are flat for now (just like they were 24 hrs ago) but metals futures are up a tad even while gold/silver prices punch to new lows at $1,170.85/$16.43.

Today's econ reports are all coming out in a couple hours for--

Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm Private Payrolls
Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Average Workweek

Also in the headlines:

Is Our Economic Future Really Behind Us? - Joel Mokyr, Project Syndicate
Unpacking the Absurdity of Buy Local Movement - Donald Boudreaux, CH
The Glamour That Restrained the November Rally - Shawn Langlois, MW
Trump Tax Cuts: Bad Idea w/a Bright Future - Megan McArdle, Bloomberg
Jack Kemp's '84 Gold Act Shows Us How It's Done - Nathan Lewis, Forbess
Ten Good Pieces of Econ. Data From Around the World - Sid Verma, BBW

[ClearCase_guy]

he's predicting an upsurge in inflation by the second half of 2018 that puts the brakes on a short-lived Trump boom.

Longer-lived than any Obama boom.

[Arm_Bears]

Cr@p like this is why I never subscribed to IBD.

[bankwalker]

Anyway stock index futures are flat for now

ES -6.00 and NQ -24.00 is flat?

[stockpirate]

That IBD uses the phony unemployment numbers instead of actually reporting the truth shows me this publication isn’t worth reading, much less quoting.

They should be ashamed of themselves. These phony numbers are to allow democrats to be able to say Trump stepped in to Obamas recovery.

[stockpirate]

Real unemployment is 20%.

[ArtDodger]

“Real unemployment is 20%.”
About what one would expect for a socialist democratic country. Before the immigration wave.

[Sicon]

These phony numbers are to allow democrats to be able to say Trump stepped in to Obamas recovery.

And you can be sure that the second Trump is sworn in, the unemployment rate will suddenly be 8%, the media and Dems will start talking about the "worst economy since Herbert Hoover," and the plight of the homeless and hungry children in America will be the lead story every single night.

[trebb]

he's predicting an upsurge in inflation by the second half of 2018 that puts the brakes on a short-lived Trump boom.

And using the fake unemployment numbers while ignoring that inflation is higher than the "new way of calculating" says it is. A Trump economy will be part of the old style where inflation happened but wages out ran it so even as things went up, so did disposable income. These days, folks could buy a house and be just as strapped with the payments during the second half of the mortgage cycle as they were in the first half - when my Dad bought a house in '62, he had a lot more disposable income before ten years had gone by.

[Wolfie]

Don’t sweat it, the other side will start leaving out the people who’ve stopped looking for jobs, so it all balances out.

[ealgeone]

Oh yes for sure. We’re about to find out just how bad things really are.

[Joe Boucher]

4.9%,?
Like EVERY other thing in this maggot, magic negro’s federal gub mint these numbers are a total LIE.

[bert]

——Real unemployment is 20%.——

What is your reference for that statement?

While I don’t believe any numbers reported from the Obama administration, my own observations do not support a 20% unemployment number.

Given the complexity of what is and what is not unemployment, there seems no basis in reality for your statement of 20%

[RinaseaofDs]

Utilization rate based on almost 95 MM being on the sidelines. 20 is conservative.

[OKSooner]

"...as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%,

I read no further.

[elpadre]

are the 94.6 million non-working Americans even mentioned??

[stockpirate]

If you reserch the real unemployment rate youwill find the truth in my statement.

After Trump takes office you will notice all the articles onthe homeless and the new unemployment rate, 20%

[expat_panama]

your reference for that statement?

from what I can gather it's a numbers thing, and most folks don't seem to get that even though liars use numbers that numbers are still what they are.  Here are the latest ones just now--

--and what we got is that 487,000 people gave up and quit the work force last month because there were only 50,000 new jobs.  We all know what that means; we also know that having the % of the workforce unemployed go down to a 'seasonally adjusted' 4.6% is not going to put food on people's tables.

We also should be able to understand that when the economy comes back to life and the 14 million people who've left the workforce since '08 return with hope and energy, that this will make our precious 'unemployment rate' soar --even though so many more folks will be eating again.

[tubebender]

Doesn’t employment always jump this time of year for the Christmas season?