OK, Daily Kos just added CD presidential data for AZ and OR.
Sorry for the formatting; percentages are listed in the following order:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
Arizona:
AZ-01 O’Halleran, Tom (D) 46.6 47.7 47.9 50.4
AZ-02 McSally, Martha (R) 49.6 44.7 48.4 49.9
AZ-03 Grijalva, Raul (D) 62.4 32.5 61.4 36.9
AZ-04 Gosar, Paul (R) 27.5 67.7 31.0 67.2
AZ-05 Biggs, Andy (R) 36.5 57.6 34.6 63.8
AZ-06 Schweikert, David (R) 42.4 52.4 38.8 59.5
AZ-07 Gallego, Ruben (D) 71.8 22.6 71.7 26.5
AZ-08 Franks, Trent (R) 37.0 58.1 36.9 61.7
AZ-09 Sinema, Kyrsten (D) 54.7 38.4 51.1 46.6
Trump dud worse than Romney in each of the three competitive seats, none of which have a high percentage of Hispanic voters but all of which have significant numbers of affluent white Anglos. Trump got blown out in Sinema’s Maricopa County CD, lost by 5% in the eastern Tucson CD (formerly held by Gabby Giffords) that Romney had won by 1.5% (although, impressively, Martha McSally was reelected in a near landslide), and barely carried the NE AZ (Republican-voting outside of the Navajo Reservation and Flagstaff) by 1% and with under 48% of the vote (Romney had exceeded 50% and carried it by 2.5%), which wasn’t enough for the GOP’s flawed House nominee to win the open-seat election.
My takeaways from all this are the following:
McSally has a good hold on the AZ-02 for us, and that it would be counterproductive to push for a primary challenge because of her occasional disappointing votes.
We can win the AZ-01 with a good candidate who is popular among traditional GOP groups in the district who also can appeal to conservative Democrats and independents. Nominating a gay county sheriff because his rock-ribbed conservative Republican primary opponents were “too establishment” (because they voted for anti-illegal-alien laws in the state legislature instead of merely whining about illegal aliens in speeches).
As for AZ-09, we need to wait for post-2020 redistricting to have a shot at winning it.
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
Oregon:
OR-01 Bonamici, Suzanne (D) 57.3 34.5 57.3 40.0
OR-02 Walden, Greg (R) 36.4 56.5 40.5 56.8
OR-03 Blumenauer, Earl (D) 70.7 22.5 72.0 24.7
OR-04 DeFazio, Peter (D) 46.1 46.0 51.7 45.0
OR-05 Schrader, Kurt (D) 48.3 44.1 50.5 47.1
No surprises there, as Trump outperformed Romney in rural areas and underperformed in urban and affluent suburban areas.
The OR-05 House seat is still winnable with a popular suburban Republican, as McSally’s performance in AZ-02 (and performances by Roksam in IL-06, Comstock in VA-10 and Paulsen in MN-03, respectively) show.
Trump came within 0.1% if carrying the largely rural OR-04, albeit with only 46% of the vote, but this was real improvement over Romney, who had gotten 45% and had lost the district by 6.7%; IIRC, Bush narrowly carried the OR-05 with 49% of the vote in 2004. Trump would have cleaned up in this district had it not been for the hippies in Eugene and Corvallis (home to the University of Oregon and Oregon State University, respectively). Given RAT Congressman Peter DeFazio’s local popularity, he will be hard to dislodge at least until 2020 redistricting.
Oregon ticks me off, we should and could so easily have a second seat there. And I’m sure you could draw a 3-2 map.
The the 4th makes me sad, some good GOP geography attacked to some nasty rats nest.
“none of which have a high percentage of Hispanic voters but all of which have significant numbers of affluent white Anglos. “
Interesting.
AZ-1 was one of the big disappointments (in the congressional race I mean), not even close.
Look, I don’t wanna exclude homosexuals from the party but these gay candidates are 0-for.
In the cases of this Sheriff and Sicko De Maio down in San Diego alleged creepy behavior was a factor in their defeats. De Maio did something in a bathroom (allegedly) and Sheriff Babeu ( too many vowels in that name) was involved sexually with an illegal immigrant and supposedly threatened to have him deported. There was also something about a school he once ran where boys were abused (only psychically, I think).
And now Daily Kos added CD presidential data for WA and WI.
Washington:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
WA-01 DelBene, Suzan (D) 54.1 37.8 54.1 43.3
WA-02 Larsen, Rick (D) 56.9 34.8 59.2 38.0
WA-03 Herrera Beutler, Jaime (R) 42.5 49.9 47.9 49.6
WA-04 Newhouse, Dan (R) 35.1 57.9 37.9 59.7
WA-05 McMorris Rodgers, Cathy (R) 39.1 52.2 43.7 53.5
WA-06 Kilmer, Derek (D) 51.8 39.5 56.1 41.2
WA-07 Jayapal, Pramila (D) 82.1 12.2 79.2 18.1
WA-08 Reichert, David (R) 47.7 44.7 49.7 48.1
WA-09 Smith, Adam (D) 70.5 23.3 68.3 29.6
WA-10 Heck, Denny (D) 51.3 39.9 56.3 41.1
Once again, Trump outperformed Romney in rural areas and blue-collar suburbs and underperformed him in affluent suburbs. This underperformance was most noticeable in Reichert’s WA-08 in the traditionally Republican suburbs to the east of Seattle.
Wisconsin:
Hillary 2016; Trump 2016; Obama 2012; Romney 2012
WI-01 Ryan, Paul (R) 42.3 52.6 47.4 51.6
WI-02 Pocan, Mark (D) 65.8 29.0 68.3 30.5
WI-03 Kind, Ron (D) 44.8 49.3 54.8 43.8
WI-04 Moore, Gwen (D) 74.0 21.8 75.3 23.8
WI-05 Sensenbrenner, Jim (R) 37.3 57.4 37.7 61.3
WI-06 Grothman, Glenn (R) 38.8 55.7 45.8 53.1
WI-07 Duffy, Sean (R) 37.3 57.8 47.8 50.9
WI-08 Gallagher, Mike (R) 38.6 56.2 47.6 51.3
Trump outperformed Romney by 5.5% in the rural and blue-collar WI-03 (which has been represented by Democrat Ron Kind since the late 1990s and was made more Democrat by the GOP in 2012 redistricting so as to make the WI-07 more Republican) and actually carried the CD by 49.3% to 44.8%. This district was in no one’s radar screen for 2016, but we should contest it strongly in 2018. After the 2020 Census, the GOP legislature should add Lacrosse to the über-Democrat Madison-based CD and make the WI-03 a more Republican district so that WI elected 6 Republicans and just 2 Democrats to the House.
Unsurprisingly, Trump underperformed Romney in Sensenbrener’s WI-05, traditionally one of the most Republican districts in the Midwest but one chock full of affluent suburbanites. However, Trump’s 4% underperformance was a drop in the bucket in that district, which had given Romney 61.3% in 2012.