re: The forces that move productivity are so complicated
One would expect IT people, if anyone, to make rational decisions. But IT decisions are part of pop-culture and no more logical than choosing which celebrity should be popular.
Fat client is an example; a fad popular in the 90s that negatively impacts current productivity. Fat client disciples are now IT managers. They cling to a very non-productive architecture.
Contrast that with Bill Gates. He never had the best OS; not the best word processor or spreadsheet. But he invented the best rational capitalist marketing system.
Bill Gates capitalism improved productivity. Fat client hurt productivity.
Shovel-ready stimulus is another example. They make no sense in terms of productivity. But they make us feel good.
Interesting comment about fat clients. I feel the same way about over-proliferation of smartphone apps that could be well designed mobile-device-specific web pages accessed via the smartphone browser.