Posted on 11/08/2016 9:09:41 AM PST by Hadean
A nice round-up by CNN of indicators pointing to a Republican win in NC, although all early-voting projections come with a big asterisk. Namely, how will whites, especially those with a college degree, vote?
For all the hype about Trump’s strength with white voters this year, he actually underperforms Romney with that group in many polls. Case in point: Romney won whites nationally by 20 in 2012 but Trump led them by just 17 in the final Fox News poll. If Hillary holds more or less steady in black support from 2012 and gets a boost in Latino votes and Trump can’t offset that by outpacing Romney with whites, you don’t need an electoral model to tell you how this is going to go.
As of Saturday, the final day of early voting [in NC], slightly fewer Democrats had cast ballots [compared to 2012] while 125,000 more Republicans have voted this time. If this election shapes up like the last, Donald Trump would win NC.
There is one key difference that complicates the data: Independent voters came out this time in droves. They cast nearly 810,000 votes, up a whopping 42% from 2012…
Other early voting trends favor Trump. While polls show Clinton has a commanding lead among African Americans, the share of black votes so far is down 5 percentage points. Trump does much better with white voters, who increased their share by 22% this election. The North Carolina Republican Party, in a statement Monday, bragged about the changes in turnout as a sign of the “North Carolina Obama coalition crumbling."
One third of Democrats age 22 to 29 who voted in 2012 failed to show up this time… Twenty-something Republicans were more enthusiastic. Nearly three quarters of them who voted early in 2012 showed up again this election.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
True. How WILL the stupidest voters (college degree) vote?
Bill Mitchell tweeted this too.
Good news!
I believe Trump will win North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Florida. This will give him 259. He needs 11 more.
PA is the key state When Trump gets that, it’s essentially the ball game. The only question will be how much higher was the score.
Well....
Hell yeah
Turnout is usually the determining factor at this point... and a wild card, in this election, since there are signs that there are people who will be voting in this election who haven’t done so before. Historically, when turnout is very high, Democratic candidates do well (as older, conservative voters are the ones who are the ones who vote most frequently, while younger, liberal-skewing voters are less likely - hence, when turnout is high, that means that the younger liberals are voting).
“The North Carolina Republican Party, in a statement Monday, bragged about the changes in turnout..”
What a snarky statement. Why does he consider that bragging? If it’s true, then that’s what matters.
This is another garbage narrative by the press.
Trump is blowing the doors off with working class whites. Even registered Dems. But we are going to focus on some perceived weakness with college educated whites... Care to guess which group is massively larger?
Michigan maybe?
Trump will carry Texas. That’s enough to put him over.
I think Texas is a given.
That may not hold true this time around. Ive heard too many older first timers are saying, for example on radio interviews say they’re going Trump.
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