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538 Senate: Now 54.3% chance Republicans will maintain control
538.com ^ | 11/7/16 | Nate Silver & Co

Posted on 11/07/2016 10:34:33 AM PST by Eccl 10:2

This was 75-25 D just two weeks ago. How can this kind of shift happen without a like shift in the Presidential race???


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 115th; 2016issues; elections
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Trump is going to do much better than the media says.
1 posted on 11/07/2016 10:34:33 AM PST by Eccl 10:2
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To: Eccl 10:2

This was 75-25 D just two weeks ago. How can this kind of shift happen without a like shift in the Presidential race???
___________________

Exactly!


2 posted on 11/07/2016 10:35:32 AM PST by conservativepoet
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To: conservativepoet

A lot of GOP candidates are advertising to keep a check on her thighness.


3 posted on 11/07/2016 10:37:51 AM PST by Lisbon1940 (Trump-Pence 2016: No full-term Governors!)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Good, then Trump’s conservative judges will be greenlighted.


4 posted on 11/07/2016 10:38:01 AM PST by Army Air Corps (Four Fried Chickens and a Coke)
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To: Eccl 10:2
This is where I would urge extreme caution for people who are pissed off at their House and Senate candidates for turning their backs on Donald Trump, or soft-pedaling their support for him. These candidates have to win their seats, period. If their poll numbers tell them that Trump isn't popular among some of their core constituent groups, then so be it.

If the Republicans hold the Senate by winning some key races, then I think it will be largely a function of Trump supporters holding their noses and voting for Republicans down the ballot.

5 posted on 11/07/2016 10:38:06 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("Yo, bartender -- Jobu needs a refill!")
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To: Eccl 10:2

Nate silver is playing 50 50 in all the predictions so he can live to fight another day. In another words he is punting.


6 posted on 11/07/2016 10:38:24 AM PST by BRL
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To: Eccl 10:2

If the Democrats take the Senate then it will be judicial Armageddon even if Trump wins the Presidency.

Under the 20th Amendment, the new Congress takes office on January 3 but the new President does not take office until January 20. That means that if Trump is elected President and the Democrats retake the Senate, then Senate Majority Leader Chuckie Schumer will have almost three weeks to push through ratification of all of Obama’s nominees from the Supreme Court down to the district courts and all of the federal agencies and there will not be a damned thing that Trump or the Republican minority will be able to do to stop it.

When Harry Reid unilaterally abolished the Senate filibuster for all Presidential appointments except for the Supreme Court the ONLY reason that he left Supreme Court filibusters alone is because there were no Supreme Court vacancies at the time. Chuckie Schumer will unilaterally abolish the Supreme Court filibuster 5 minutes after he takes office.

It gets worse. Scalia’s Supreme Court seat is not the only Supreme Court seat at issue. If it means that Obama can fill their seats, then the day after the election far-left octogenarian Justices Ginsburg and Breyer will announce their retirements. They probably already have the young far-left wing radical replacements picked out. That will mean a far-left wing Supreme Court majority of Obama appointees will be legislating every aspect of our lives for the next 30 years.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.


7 posted on 11/07/2016 10:39:12 AM PST by Bubba_Leroy (Never Hillary)
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To: Eccl 10:2

Trump wins in landslide and they have to change their meme to reflect reality..like George Carlin used to say...”reality...what a concept”? Or was that Robin Williams? Oh well they are both gone so who cares...lol


8 posted on 11/07/2016 10:39:34 AM PST by lexington minuteman 1775
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To: Alberta's Child

Excellent post!


9 posted on 11/07/2016 10:40:08 AM PST by MplsSteve
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To: conservativepoet

I can explain it. Trump made a huge point of telling the people that he NEEDED to have a Republican Congress, if he was going to be able to make the necessary changes in our laws and culture.

While I have only supported a couple of people with a few dollars, I will be voting for every Repub on my ballot.


10 posted on 11/07/2016 10:40:10 AM PST by CyberAnt (Peace through Strength)
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To: Eccl 10:2

In Illinois Kirk is a goner. The D rat party is running anti-Trump commercials with the aim to help down ballot races. IMO they are hilarious in their content but they might be effective in this state. The whole D strategy in Illinois boils down to miserable scolding white women are not to be trifled with in any circumstance.


11 posted on 11/07/2016 10:43:21 AM PST by junta ("Peace is a racket", testimony from crime boss Barrack Hussein Obama.)
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To: CyberAnt

I was at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania last week. Trump had to gently scold the crowd when they started booing the two Republican Congressmen who introduced him. It was honestly one of the strangest things I’ve ever seen at a public event. LOL.


12 posted on 11/07/2016 10:44:09 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("Yo, bartender -- Jobu needs a refill!")
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To: Eccl 10:2

Silver is a dweeb fraud created by hyper publicity and a couple of lucky calls. He’s famous because the media decided he should be. I’m hoping this election will be the end of the “pollster as rock star.”


13 posted on 11/07/2016 10:44:57 AM PST by clintonh8r
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To: conservativepoet

Nate is looking at reality and knows that he rather keep his reputation and lose some lib but-kissers, than not be able to make a paycheck.


14 posted on 11/07/2016 10:46:19 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: Eccl 10:2

The polls like always were propaganda for the dems 2 weeks ago and now they need to start to get close to the truth.


15 posted on 11/07/2016 10:46:44 AM PST by Lady Heron
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To: lexington minuteman 1775

Robin Williams: “Reality—what a concept.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StPjkm1bbbY


16 posted on 11/07/2016 10:46:58 AM PST by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: junta
No big loss there. I know every seat counts, but I'm at the point where I simply want to see Republicans hold their seats in states Romney won in 2012, and defend 2-3 key states that Obama won in 2012 ... like Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

One of the best pieces of news I heard today is that Johnson has really closed the gap on Feingold in Wisconsin over the last few days, so there is a faint hope that the GOP can hold that seat.

The Republicans are defending a lot of seats this year, and they don't really have a good chance to pick up seats currently held by Democrats -- even with retiring Democratic incumbents in a few states.

17 posted on 11/07/2016 10:50:17 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("Yo, bartender -- Jobu needs a refill!")
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To: Eccl 10:2

Ya gotta love the bogus precision implied by that tenth of a decimal!


18 posted on 11/07/2016 10:51:56 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Alberta's Child

I’m pissed at mine (Toomey) and called his office to voice disapproval but I’m still voting for him. McGinty is bad news.


19 posted on 11/07/2016 10:54:32 AM PST by GCC Catholic (Stay out of the weeds! Let's hold fast to the path and Make America Great Again!)
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To: MplsSteve

Thank you!


20 posted on 11/07/2016 10:55:03 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("Yo, bartender -- Jobu needs a refill!")
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