The polling data he cites is real. The question, like all polling data, is whether the data is accurate.
The available evidence is that Mrs. Clinton will draw fewer Black voters to the polls than Mr. Obama. The data indicates that and it would logically follow that any non-black candidate would have less enthusiasm after Obama. He had an emotional connection with them, she does not.
Given a smaller turnout, it also follows that Mr. Trump, a non-traditional candidate, has an opportunity to appeal to larger slice of a smaller electoral demographic.
If Mr. Trump can exceed 10%, his task becomes easier. If it exceeds 20%, Mrs. Clinton’s task becomes much harder, which might explain why it seems she is trying to shore up “battleground” states and Mr. Trump is expanding into certain Democrat states like Michigan.
Trump was the first GOP candidate to point out that for black Americans, the Democrat Party is -- and always has been -- nothing more than a plantation.
P.S. — If Romney got 5% of the black vote and black turnout was down 50% (not likely even in a worst-case scenario for the Democrats), then Trump would “naturally” get 10% of the black vote just because of lower black turnout. If he’s getting almost 20% (and I think he’ll get even more), then this is really an indication of a major defection to Trump, not just lower turnout.