[StAnDeliver]

The two young Amish men - one for Trump, one for Hillary - produce remarkably unique signature shifts every time their turn comes up. So much so that you can even see the variations in weighting as the poll progressed.

At any rate, here are some more sui generis explanations from that poll team:

• "The team of researchers at USC who conduct the poll used the same technique four years ago to forecast the 2012 election" ... "The poll was one of the most accurate of the year. It predicted that President Obama would be reelected with a margin of victory of 3.32 percentage points. He won by 3.85 points. Most other polls underestimated Obama’s margin by more than that."
• 
• "We ask people if they voted in 2012 and, if so, whom they voted for. We adjust the sample to match that, so 25% are people who say they voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, 27% are people who say they voted for Obama and 48% either did not vote or were too young to vote last time. Using 2012 votes as a weighting factor is designed to get the right partisan balance in the sample and to ensure that we’re also polling people who did not vote last time, a group that can get left out of some other surveys."

[Corpus_Delicious]

It appears that Trump is peaking at just the right time compared to Obama in 2012. Obama lost almost all of his last rally, but still won by over 3 points.