Some Interesting Internals from The Top Polls Used By RealClearPolitics

11/6/16 | OV

[OneVike]

I'm only grabbing information from the internal numbers of the questionable polls that bring into question the final average.




Makes you wonder about those who can't remember if they voted 4 years ago?











There are a few interesting things to note from the McClatchy-Marist poll above. Especially when you consider they under polled Republicans. If you recalculate the number you would find that Trump does much better against Hillary with men than she does with women which is skewed by the over sampling of Democrats. Plus when pollsters say college educated vs college uneducated, they mean those with a 4 year college degree vs anyone who does not have a 4 year degree. I cannot stress the importance of the fact that there are almost 80% more Americans who went to college but never graduated, or just received a 2 year degree compared to the number of Americans who earned a 4 year degree.










Finally, I believe that Trump will win the election by 3% to 5%. I have numbers that points to Trump winning Florida by 3%, and that he will come real close to barely winning in a couple other Battle Ground states, but I have not been able to make the formula to work as surely in them as it does for Florida. I have used my Florida formula all the way back to Bush in 2000 and it is a good one. However, it just won't work as consistently in other battleground state, and my head is too tired to try any more. Plus there is no time left for me to keep trying.

In nut shell, it has to do with the number of registered voters for each party in Florida, and a tried and true formula of 87% of the registered Democrats voting compared to 97% of Republicans who always vote. With such a close number of Dem vs Rep registered voters, Trump will carry the state by 3%, and possibly more if there are a substantial number of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump.

I tested the formula for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, and it works within .3% for all four Florida State elections. Not sure why it works that way in Florida and not in other states, but it does. Who knows, maybe it's a number the Democrats found and thus that is why they try to reach so many minority's in their push during their for long registration and early vote in order to steal the elections in Presidential election years.

[OneVike]

After the results are in and the election is over, the vote breakdown is never a 10% discrepancy between partys.

[OneVike]

Sorry, but you need a government license to won one.

Just kidding.

[freepersup]

What’s up hard charging USMC? Semper Fidelis marine. Get Some! Jah Rooh!

Long time no talk.

Hey, Trump’s coming to Grand Rapids tonight. Are you going?

[wiggen]

NBC is Clintons strongest but they polled 15% more people who voted Obama over Romney when in reality the spread was 3.9%.
If we even use 5% over polling of Obama voters Trump is ahead.

[ReaganGeneration2]

Great work!

(If only there was a way to project election fraud, we’d have accuracy.)

[AU72]

If Trump loses, we know it’s rigged.

[TomasUSMC]

I will be there bro how about you?

[japaneseghost]

You are not setting off the sensors.

Stop 1 bus or car back from the white line. See if that sets if off, if not, stop 2 bus or carloads in back of the white line.

[native texan]

One Vike, I like your tagline....I’m waiting too.

[9YearLurker]

It is common for more voters to recall having voted for the winner in the last election than previously did. But you both may well be right, with this skew a little high—even considering the virtue signalling of an Obama vote.

[Big Giant Head]

Some day I will explain how my boss saved the American tax payers billions of dollars over the years by forcing down the cost of the controllers.

Ping me if you do this.

[spintreebob]

NOTA and No Opinion should be much larger for those who have not yet voted. One of the reasons people have not voted early is that they still don’t know whom to vote for.

The NOTA/no opinion percent should be much larger in Sept and early October and gradually decline as people make up their mind.

One of the major reasons Clinton is given the edge is that she (allegedly) has a massive ground game. A major role of an effective ground game is to help the undecided decide. Trump (allegedly) has no ground game, let alone an effective ground game.

By not showing a larger undecided percent, the polls, in effect, have already factored in Clinton’s ground game to be effective in moving the undecided.

Ground games are a necessary part of a win. But they are limited by other campaign factors. In GA in 2014 the Ds had a massive, well funded, well run ground game for Nunn against Perdue. In Oct 2014 I predicted Nunn would come close due to that ground game.

Many co-workers and neighbors who had been reliable D voters in 2006 and 2010 told me they would not vote for Nunn because they were p’d over higher insurance premiums and higher deductibles for less coverage.

I was proven wrong. The well funded, well staffed 2014 ground game in GA was ineffective. Now in 2016 there is no D ground game in GA. That same funding and staff has left GA for FL and NC. It will be interesting to see if the massive D ground game in FL and NC can be effective given the climate of the voters in the areas their ground game is targeting.

[okie01]

One of the major reasons Clinton is given the edge is that she (allegedly) has a massive ground game. A major role of an effective ground game is to help the undecided decide.

The primary role of the ground game is to get your voters to the polls.

[New Jersey Realist]

They have to lie about these polls so people don’t question a Clinton win because of the cheating that is going to happen. The election is most certainly rigged. Corruption abounds. I pray I’m wrong.

[OneVike]

I’m glad you caught that. I tried to get the parts of the polls that showed by comparison to facts how good Trump really is doing.

Add that to the other discrepancy in the other polls and I cannot help but see a rocking great night for trump.

Will it be a landslide? not sure, but it is most definitely looking like a much bigger win than Obama had in 2012.

And as far as setting us up to accept a rigged stolen election, I do not believe they can steal enough votes to win it for Hillary, because trump looks like he will be winning buy over 6 Million votes.

[OneVike]

To be honest, there will be massive froud, but I really do not think they can steal enough votes to give Hillary a win. Trump is set to win Huge.

[OneVike]

No, it all has to do with the mass of the vehicles.You need to be dead center to trip the censors. Unless they set the sensors for a higher weight to click them.

Some places they do not want bicycles to trip them so the higher the mass needed trip it.

[OneVike]

Honestly, they set the sensor off or it is just damages. The sensors are under the street where the vehicle go over them. A vehicle as big as a bus should have no problem setting it off. That is a sensor problem not the controller problem

[OneVike]

Cool, It’s been a long wait, but as Abraham did, we too are just passing through

[OneVike]

I’ll put you on a to ping list.

I need to do it after he retires, which now will be soon.

If I ever even eluded to him he would get audited by California and the feds probably.

They know who he is, and have in the past tried to shut him down at the request of the politicians buddies the big corporations. He really cut into their bottom line by forcing down the prices.

I’ll give you a hint, when he began the average price of a controller was $1500 to $3000 per unit, and that was 30 years ago. Today the average price is about $1000. Originally he started selling them at $700, but costs have risen, but even at that he never had to raise them above $1000.