He still shows a 35% chance for a Trump win, overall.
His model can’t handle the model breaker, and it doesn’t properly adjust for a 10 point redistribution of the total vote toward Hillary.
What “10 point redistribution of the total vote toward Hillary”?
Nate is basically a Bayes-theorem practitioner, which is all about probability and nothing about certainty.
He is still one state short in the Silver model (or two small ones if they are NV and NH).
Not sure where that one extra state comes from. I’m hoping it is Colorado.
I believe Nates path only requires NH to go Trump and he is over 270...
Funny that’s exactly where the path was about a month ago when Trump
Was at 48% but today same path and only in 30s