Posted on 11/04/2016 12:11:00 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
Dead cat bounce with an unrealistic D+ Samples. Nothing to see here.
If you need encouragement, check out Bill Mitchell https://twitter.com/mitchellvii and Larry Schweikart https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart for the straight-up unfiltered and unskewed meaning of the polls.
We’re winning, and convincingly at that.
Both are convinced Trump win by 5-6 percentage points on election day and 300-320 EV.
Guys, the ibd tip poll is now d+3 and has us in a statistical tie (with Hillary up by under .5). This is a reputable poll. It seems like the Trump momentum has stalled and the dems are pushing back. We can rationalize it all away, but the possibility also remains that our country has tipped with more than 50 percent of the voters receiving entitlements and not caring about issues, just the monthly welfare check. That will always favor a crooked dem like Hillary.
The GWB inaugural speech of 2005 was the beginning of his cop-out to his liberal “friends”, as Jack French Kemp always called them.
Please SoFlo, stop it, for your own sake. You obviously don't know what you are talking about, and are embarrassing yourself even more here, if that is even possible.
I worked statistics for decades, so I know a thing or two.
You’ve never taken a stat course.
^^^^THIS^^^^
Remove NY and CA from the national average and Trump is +10, regardless of D oversampling. It's all about the battleground states, not the popular vote.
Look, I am open to correction.
I saw a 5.0 lead yesterday. 1.5 of that 5.0 is now gone.
Is that 1.5 equal to 30% of the lead?
The math is correct, but the interpretation is way off. Your knowledge of statistics, MOE, noise, etc, is poor. Read a wiki or something.
Look, I don't like the trend on this one either, but I couldn't let an obvious misstatement slide.
The initial effect of Comey's announcement a week ago is wearing off. Don't just sit back and say it's a bad poll and Trump will win in a landslide. There is reason for optimism, but everybody needs to get out there on election day and VOTE TRUMP, and convince as many people as you can to VOTE TRUMP. I believe it's going to be close.
We were all burned in 2012. I’ll never forget those closing days to the election. Romney’s rallies were huge. I recall an outdoor night rally the last couple of days where people were lined up for what seemed miles. Insiders were talking about the excited mood of the Romney staff. We just could ‘feel’ it. Dick Morris was predicting a landslide, (lol). Yard signs in my area of central Ohio were probably 4 to 1 Romney. I could go on and on with all the anecdotal stories in the closing days pointing to a Romney surge.
and by 9:30 election night, watching the swing states fall to Obama one by one....one of the worst nights of my life and chiefly due to allowing myself to get swept up in all the hype.
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I had the same feelings four years ago. On sites like this, all of us were talking about Romney momentum, the huge crowds, the yard signs. I feel a little more confident this time because of how state polls are trending, but this race could still go either way. We can’t get overconfident.
What’s really interesting is how this poll is tracking their 2012 poll results. Here is the 2012 rand poll:
Go to the current 2016 poll and compare.
Look four days back from the end and you see a similar Obama drop and a Romney rise. It wasn’t enough for a comeback then, pray that it’s not enough now.
A poll tells us the result of a sample of the population not the population. If we take two samples of a population we will get two different results. Even though both samples tell us something about the population slight variations do not mean the population changed.
In other words today’s poll could have been the result yesterday and yesterday poll could have been today while the population did not change. Using your approach you would assume Trump’s support increased when the only thing that happened was the sample changed. The MOE gives us some idea of what a significant change is. Movements less than the MOE may or may not be representing a change in the population.
Remove TX as well then, and where is it? The truth is, we really don’t know what will happen. The waiting is the hardest part — I believe we can win this, with God’s help, but darn is it stressful.
Won’t be R+2 nationally. Many states, but not nationally. D+2 probably realistic
I trust this poll more than others. It is, however, associated w LASlimes
This is the last big day for bad stuff to come out — on either side.
Larry - sampling the same folks over and over again in groups (even if randomized) may work in a shorter-term poll, but eventually, minds are set and the value drops as the poll goes on beyond a few weeks at most. I think perhaps two weeks may be about all the usefulness of this method is capable of. Beyond that, it’s just noise among those folks. A seven day rolling sample though should be less prone to noise. Best we can tell from this is either a huge Trump day rolled off (Thursday last week?) or a huge Hillary day came in (yesterday), which would not seem as likely given current events. Battlegrounds are all Trump or within the MoE for most polls. It’s a turnout election and right now, things don’t look so hot for her.
I bet the general population believes the conclusions are gospel without considering internals at all.
I bet the general population believes the conclusions are gospel without considering internals at all.
The general population doesn’t really understand issues such as the internals, or margins of error, or what it means when someone says a poll has a 95% confidence interval. These are important points to know when seeing polls, but the media gloss over these details.
That’s all true, and relevant.
One takeaway, however. Romney only lost by 3.8% NATIONALLY.
If you redistribute a pretty small number of votes (something like 250K or maybe 500K..but a pretty small number) throughout the right swing states....he actually wins the electoral college.
The point being...I think that there was an actual Romney surge. It’s just that it wasn’t quite enough....we know lots of conservatives stayed home, and we know the ongoing fraud operation in swing states is pervasive.
So I think all of the data that you saw, and lots of us saw, reflected a real phenomenon.
But it’s just that it wasn’t quite enough...then, looking back, it gets distorted because we see that obama actually outperformed the polls and won by nearly 4%, even though the polls showed much closer.
But it wasn’t middle America that gave him that margin. It was the big blue states.
In any event...it’s a thought.
We (collectively...) could have beaten obama. But we didn’t and that will haunt us for the rest of our lives.
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