The sleeper is Virginia. If Clinton gets less than 85% of the black vote statewide, she will lose the state.
What about CO. If that goes Trump, it’s an electoral lock.
Ditto..as I posted on another thread, everyone should take a look at yesterday’s Hampton University survey, which put Trump up by 3 (one month ago, Hillary and a 12-point lead). The Hampton U poll doesn’t get a lot of attention but the WaPo has called it the most accurate in Virginia. And believe me, no one can accuse the university (or its public policy department) of being in the tank for Trump.
Living near key Democratic bastions like Norfolk, Newport News and Hampton, I can tell you enthusiasm on the other side is virtually non-existent. On the other hand, go a few miles further into the 1st Congressional District (which runs from middle York County to the Richmond suburbs and includes the Northern Neck) and it’s a completely different story. Yard signs all over the place and there are Trump supporters on the side of Highway 17 every day. It’s an R+7 district and there will be a huge turnout on election day.
If minority voter turnout is way down in the Norfolk area and other locales like Richmond and Petersburg, Hillary will have to carry Northern Virginia by an even larger margin to win the state. Slowly but surely, that scenario seems to be fading.