Posted on 11/02/2016 8:51:33 AM PDT by mandaladon
Stein, Johnson and write in Bernie voters leave Cankles at 35% and Trump wins with 38% of the vote. Wild but could happen.
Yup. Built-in demographic bias. Poll is junk.
This poll is no less reliable than the junk being put fort by the media.
CNN is saying she is +4 in Michigan, +11 if we ask the question of whom do you think is more fit for presidency
These are not pols, they are mind bending phone calls to shape opinion in desguise of pol questions!!!
I live in Bucks county one of the so called 17 critical counties in the US. we went for Obama by 1.2 % in 2012.
No way is the county going for Obama by the same rate. The approximate Trump to Hillary signage is around 4 to 1. Pretty constant across the county, in 2012 Obama was equal to Romney, he might have even had an edge in signs. I would expect the county to go for Trump by around 3% or more.
Wilkes-Barre Scranton went democratic in 2012 and 2008, Polling in those counties show a strong Trump support and folks I know up there saying the are going republican this year.
No one knows. The polls seem to be odd, as they are consistently undercounting blue collar, non college educated whites. Might be due to the response rate or it might be that these families are working 2 jobs and so are not home to answer polls, I do not know. But how to estimate that bias significance or the reduction in black vote?
PA went for Obama by 5.3 % in 2012,which was 310,000 votes. registration changes since 2012 give the republicans an adder of 232,000 voters, if black participation drops by 12 % (as it has in early voting in NC), that is another 80,000 votes lost to the Dems.
PA is in reach of Trump, but no one will know until Nov 8th.
I think it is equally big news that Iowa, which went democratic in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections is looking like a solid Trump win this time. Anything could happen.
Pennsylvania will go Trump. Coal Mines and Steel Mills are part of what made America great, not Chinese steel or Chinese coal. People there remember and Trump keeps reminding them.
It’s encouraging to see this poll, but it’s still a slim chance. Trump’s economic talk is really resonating with the coal miners of central PA and the industrial workers of western and eastern PA. If he could squeak out a win in PA, it would take the pressure off a LOT. It’s still not at all certain. The Republicans have talked about “winning PA” for almost 20 years now, and it just never happens. The libs in Philly and P’Burgh are many.
Bottom line: It’s still an uphill battle for Trump (or any Republican) from here on out. He MUST win Florida, Ohio, and NC and that STILL won’t put him over the 270 mark. He would have a better shot had the Republicans kept VA, but VA is demographically doomed to be Democrat and is lost to the conservative side. He can do it if he can win PA and/or Michigan. Without those two, he MUST also flip Iowa, NH, Colorado, Nevada, plus keep Arizona. Colorado, filling with rabid liberals is not going to flip, and Nevada is likely gone too just like New Mexico. Gone are the days when Republicans could carry 40+ state landslides like Reagan and Nixon.
I am from Manhattan and staying in Bucks County for 3 weeks. I’m volunteering full-time out of the Newtown office, doing a lot of door knocking, phones, and rally help. I worked in Holland, Feasterville, and a lot of Levittown.
The houses are targeted so I usually get enthusiastic Trump support when I actually reach someone at home, which may be 20% of the time. I don’t take that as an indicator since they are targeted, but I do talk to them about their family and friends. Most of them show very broad Trump support.
While there are few political lawn signs, Trump beats Hillary in signs 10 to 1. One supporter said last election her street was filled with Obama signs, but there are no Hillary signs this time.
Most of those states have had HUGE injections of “refugees”, most trained to vote Dem before learning any English (Catholic Charities, etc.). Then there’s the resentful population resentful of that. While those factors will probably cancel each other out I am counting on citizen’s overall dissatisfaction and disgust to turn out in numbers. Will the people win or the rigging? Another weird Supreme Court intervention? The difference this time is “the people” are far more emotionally invested and may not stand by a decision deemed tainted.
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