Posted on 11/02/2016 5:10:11 AM PDT by Kaslin
Trump by four. I wanna get it here on this thread a week out. We’ll see how well my “dartboard” approach comports with the final result and if I can do a better job predicting than the polls.
Reliable polls are a thing of the past.
Every one has their agenda.
I bet none of them really match demographics in a way considered ideal.
That will become even more clear after the election next week.
1 - One reason to trust the polls. Everyone said the same thing about oversampling, being fixed, landlines, rally attendance, etc in 2008 & 2012
And in 2012 the RCP average of polls had them off by 2.6%. That is actually huge considering that is a poll of polls and the margin of error for each is reduced as they are totaled. So yeah, 2012 is a good reason to not trust polls. And it has gotten worse since.
That was an impressive analysis.
I always like to learn something from FR, and I just did. Thank you.
And let’s remember that polls had Hillary beating Bernie in Michigan - when it was put to the test, the result was a surprise for both Hillary and those of us who believed whatever the polls tell us. The polls often tell us exactly what the pollsters want them to. Can’t help but wonder if the polls “tightening” is a complete lie. My guess is that the polls were never as pro-Hillary as the pollsters told us they were and now that the election is just around the corner, they are trying to save face. By next Wednesday, we will be talking about President Trump!
“They are not highly scientific. They pretend to predict outcome, based on faulty premises. The parties live and die by the polls - this makes the polls more important than they really are.”
They ( polls) give them something to talk about other than the issues
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