Well, screw him and be heartened by this on the ground report from Dayton, OH:
In 2012, Ds won the county on the basis of the early vote and won by 12,000 total. As of today, they still trailed by 2,000. Now, we have a guy on the ground who helped us with a very important statistical adjustment: Ohio kicks voters who did not vote in the primary into the “undeclared” bin instead of D or R. As you know, these U numbers are high EVERYWHERE this year. How are they voting? Our friend laid out a map of every U household in Montgomery County and allocated all the U votes in terms of how that household voted in the past-—D, R, or U. The result is “normalized.”
So, Rs have a lead of 2000-—but lots of Us. What happens when they are “normalized?” Rs trail by 600 . . . after more than two weeks of early voting! Ds should be up 8,000 by now! Our analysis shows that Us are splitting 50/50 in this HEAVILY D county, whereas in 2012 they went 2:1 for Obama.
Finally, on the ground reports are that black voting, which in the past was 6:1, trickled to 3:1 this week and today was down to 2:1. This won’t do it. Ds will be down in this heavily D county by at least 4,000 votes, and there’s an outside shot Trump could even win it. My guy said he had seen “more white people voting than ever before,” mainly because there is only ONE early vote location in Dayton . . . downtown, where no one wants to go.
Thanks for this and other reports LS. Very nice, and encouraging...
Here’s hoping your analysis is right. I suspect as usual it is.
Trump is Alpha Male
Kasich is a Beta (now Omega) and he hates the pecking order when Trump’s around.
He’s dead, Jim
I’m heartened. :-)
Very heartened by what is coming out in polling, especially NH and NV.
Awesome stuff LS!
Thanks for the detailed update & analysis from Ohio.