Posted on 10/29/2016 4:56:33 AM PDT by Maceman
FR is going completely bananas since Comey sent a torpedo into the SS Pantsuit yesterday
I thought Johnson was just retarded, but his inability to remember Aleppo and failure to name a single leader he admires are both easily explained as symptomatic of the short term memory lapses caused by pot.
Pot sucks, HIPPIES suck, and SHRILLARY! SUCKS!!!!.
Even if all these polls are significantly skewed for Hillary’s benefit, the key takeaway is that after 30 years of Clinton scandals, several years of investigations demonstrating acts of treason, roughly 40%+ of Americans want her for President.
The fact that this race could be considered close, even with hinky polls, is proof that we are screwed as a country in the long run.
That’s how you and I think, but I don’t think that’s how the soft supporters who may or may not vote each cycle think about it.
It is interesting that the IBD/TIPP poll is going one way, while the LA/Dornslife (SP?) poll is going the other, and the media polls (like ABC) are closing rapidly.
Observations from someone who actually learned something in a statistics class:
1. If any poll has to significantly reweight results, it failed in the first step in obtaining a valid sample - everything depends on your sample being representative of the population being sampled. Reweighting Ds by 10% and Rs by 20% means their call strategy was bad. That is a fatal flaw that cannot be remedied except by starting over.
2. The reported result, say 43% for Trump, is the MIDPOINT of the range. No point in the range is any more likely to be the actual correct result than any other. So, 43%, +/-3 means 40% or 46% (and any point in between) could be the correct result. So, talk of “he moved up 2 points this week” betrays ignorance. You can’t use a yardstick as a micrometer.
Further, MOE applies to each result - not to the difference between them. A 50-44 lead with a MOE of 3 means you cannot reject the hypothesis that the two candidates are tied. This fact, however, makes for lousy TV and forum banter, so it is roundly ignored.
3. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level. That means every poll has a 1 in 20 chance of producing a non-representative result. There is no cure for this defect and no way to tell if the result is off by 2 or 10 points.
The big question about poll internals is which respondents they choose to delete to obtain their pools of adjusted representation. They never say if they used #nevertrump GOPe rather than pro Trump responses, or #always D vs. defecters. I can guess . . .
Pat Caddell is right-- no one knows what the f**k is going to happen. Just get out and vote.
After last election I am hesitant to dismiss polls that don’t go our way. Having said that, it is hard for me to accept polls that fly in the face of events. In this case it is not just one event that I might feel (in my universe) is important which isn’t to voters at large. Oh no, it is a constant barrage:
Obamacare’s skyrocketing premium hikes
Exposure of the Clinton Foundation, State and a and pay for play scheme
Clinton’s health and lies pertaining thereto
Hiring people to incite violence at Trump campaigns (a video showing it)
Coordinating with super PACs in violation of the law
And now the FBI and whatever they are doing
The cherry on the cake being a constant flood of Wikileaks e-mails confirming and shedding light on all of the above and more (coordination with the media, etc.). That flood continues and is increasing in intensity.
I may (said may) buy a poll showing a tie or within the statistical MOE. But I am calling horse craola on any poll that shows Hillary’s lead increasing even before the FBI news hit.
But what am I thinking!! Trump said the p-word and groped women 20
years ago, all of said women having suffered from amnesia that they all found the cure for in time for the election.
Trump is 100% correct the system is rigged.
I have attempted to explain this to “smart” people who get their knowledge from msm. I guess my polysci degree is trumped by Whoopie Goldberg’s assurance.
And... selection bias
Eyep...Sunday morning talk shows will revive the “unexpected” theme.
Gee, I thought the lamestream media already declared the race was over and Hitlery won??
Why do they bother with these bogus polls?
In other news, Kim Jong Un also got another 14 holes-in-one in a single golf game.
So I have been following this tracker for the week plus that it has been running. The raw sample IBD keeps getting is consistently even to R+3. At some point, if you are truly calling a representative sample of the population, you have to accept that the sample is reflective of the population. Instead, IBD continually re-weights the respondents to D+7. If the turnout in the election is truly D+7, there is no chance Trump or any other republican wins now or ever again. But the sample that is answering the phone belies this conclusion about the electorate.
No problem posting even the bogus polls - most of us 9who actually have brains) know that awareness is key - we generally only jump on those who start singing that we need to wave the white flag.
Since today’s numbers occurred before the stunning revelation that the FBI is reopening the criminal investigation about the mishandling of classified emails, and whatever else turns up, the poll over the next week should reveal the affects on the Clinton (Crime) Campaign.
I’d say another big question is the voting split assumptions on the increasingly large independent group. That segment has been rising because of disgust with both parties, and Trump should be the beneficiary of that.
Recent and last picture I saw of Huma, she was leaving the Clinton plane solo, laden down with luggage and all her worldly goods and looking very somber. Maybe she is enroute, as we speak, to foreign climes. I’ve been thinking for a while that maybe Mr. Weiner is dabbling in a bit of revenge. Who knows what yet may be revealed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.