Actually their sample is R+1. They re-weighted to D+7 to get those results.
Right. What I meant. Weighted sample of D+7 is what they’re reporting.
Actual vote will be no more than D+4
I’m not sure how you how you can necessarily dismiss that - 2012 electorate was D+6, 2008 D+7, 2004 Even. Going into election day I thought Romney was going to win, but that partisan spit broke him even though he also carried independents.
On the one hand, I suppose it’s conceivable Trump could get the partisan split down to D+1 to D+3. On the other, there are a lot more non-white people (D’s) voting since 2004 so maybe that number’s no longer attainable? I think I’ve heard that the partisan crossover numbers are about even. I hope more crossover D’s than NeverTrumper’s GOTV but who knows.
Let’s hope white America turns out like they’ve never turned out before. It’s really kind of dispiriting that the IBD poll and ABC poll are basically in alignment now, and Trump’s still down 11 days out.