There has been a 5 point move to Hillary in the past week in this poll. There has been an 8 point move to Trump in the ABC fruitcake poll. So which trend is it?
Regarding the D+7 weighting. Has that been the weighting IBD has used all along this cycle, or has that been rejiggered of late?
In any case, Trumps deficit here at 11 days out in an average of polls is now 3-4 points. Close enough to be overcome realistically. Were no longer in that 10 point gap polling range that we were only a week or two ago.
I suspect there never was a 10-14 point gap anywhere but in the media narrative to start with and it is probably not 3-4 points for Hilldog now.
Very good question. I was also wondering whether IBD has changed their weighting or been consistent.
There has been a 5 point move to Hillary in the past week in this poll. There has been an 8 point move to Trump in the ABC fruitcake poll. So which trend is it?
Regarding the D+7 weighting. Has that been the weighting IBD has used all along this cycle, or has that been rejiggered of late?
In any case, Trumps deficit here at 11 days out in an average of polls is now 3-4 points. Close enough to be overcome realistically. Were no longer in that 10 point gap polling range that we were only a week or two ago.
Lots of polling companies that have done well in the past will be off this election cycle. It is not a typical election and using past turnout models will cause them to be wrong. Trump will win by a bigger margin then most think.