Posted on 10/28/2016 3:44:02 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
No. but i do think in listening to interviews with this pollster that he is in love with his track record and is refusing to see reality. I wonder if he reweighted his sample to 37,37, 26 in 2008? Doubt it. Also, this is a 7 day roller so last Sat and Sun are still in their. Lets see tomorrow’s result. Guarantee it tightens a bit. I do think that they are “burying” Stein’s vote with Hillary. She was polling 5 a week ago. Now 1?
Supposedly, there is no way to know, ahead of time, that the sample taken reflects the expected turnout. So they "assume" a turnout model, and weight the sample according to what they claim is the expected turnout.
Weighting also introduces another assumption, that the DEM vote will be 100% Crooked, and the R vote will be 100% Trump.
Liberals just want to kill babies and get free stuff. They don’t care that she’s a criminal. That’s why they want convicts in prison to vote.
I just want this election over and done with and Ohole out of the rainbow house.
They can’t get voters like us to answer the phone. You ‘oh noers’, buck up!
Get a spine and stop the pessimism. Why do you believe the polls no matter what we explain here? Why?
Romney is not running. Nor is McCain. Nor is Dole or Bush...any Bush. They all would be fine with losing.
It shows Clinton rising recently and Trump falling - the exact opposite of the real trend. We’ll soon find out if it’s stll the “most accurate” poll.
Discouraging.
Actual vote will be no more than D+4
Election breakdown will likely match real part affiliation breakdown which is 28R 32D and 40I nationally. If they didn’t reweight to this they are using unlikely assumptions
No weighting doesn’t assume all d go hill and all r go trump. They weight it based on the results they have. So if results are d are 90% Hillary and 10% trump they reweight using those numbers
They can’t get voters like us to answer the phone. You ‘oh noers’, buck up!
Get a spine and stop the pessimism. Why do you believe the polls no matter what we explain here? Why?
Romney is not running. Nor is McCain. Nor is Dole or Bush...any Bush. They all would be fine with losing.
I for one am tired of the never ending “you have qualified for this or that” calls that follow answering one political survey call.
Agree on the smiling losers list... Voted for all of them , and what real change did we see.
Go Donald
Yup, I’m guessing D+0 to D+3 given black vote is massively down everywhere we have early voting data (eg: ~30% in NC)
How do you get that
Looks like 37% rat, 30% Republican and 32% Indie.
It has been the most accurate poll since 2004.
Not if you consider they are using a weighted D+7 sample even though their random sample was R+1. I do not think that the turnout this year will be D+7 as it was in 2012 because even the ‘rats are not crazy for Hilldog, but I have been wrong before.
They assume that it will be a lower turnout of Republicans. Assumption is life’s lowest form of knowledge. Enthusiasm factor favors Trump. This poll is turning into propaganda.
I know, but I also know that we do this dance every four years and it usually winds up the same way.
Yes 08/12 models are laughable as a baseline for 16. At Best Dems will get the self identified difference which is about 28R to 32D.
The only way D’s go higher than that is if the Monster vote shows up and it’s huge D leaning in which case the extra D will be largely going for Trump and it won’t be helpful to Hillary in the least.
Has anyone else here noticed under the “Intensity of Support”, Trump is leading Hillary 64% to 59% in the Strong column and only behind by 4 points in the Moderate?
FWIW, it makes me think of the Chauncey Gardiner quote from “Being There”: “As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.”
Republicans usually have a spineless weasel running. Not this year.
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