[Thickman]

I expected that Trump would outperform among AA and that AA turnout would also be lower. I figured 15% for Trump and 10% fewer total AA votes. That prediction was in January, but I think it will be more like I am predicting with the map I posted being the result. JMHO

[Steven W.]

Michigan might be gray ;)

[Windflier]

I expected that Trump would outperform among AA and that AA turnout would also be lower. I figured 15% for Trump and 10% fewer total AA votes.

All available evidence is pointing towards your prediction being right. Black voters will not turn out for Hillary with the same enthusiasm and numbers that they turned out for Obama.

In addition, a new and radical mindset is taking hold among blacks. More and more of them are beginning to question their people's dogged, monolithic loyalty to the Democrat party - especially in light of the fact that conditions in their communities have actually worsened over the last eight years of Obama.

Donald Trump is the perfect candidate to coax such people 'off the plantation'. They've known and admired him for decades, and yes saying all the things they want to hear.

This Election, we may see as much as 20% of blacks switch sides to vote for Trump. In 2020 it will be 50%.