I agree that VA will be tough. I think PA is actually better for Trump demographically.
Trump can win Virginia, though. In 2008 and 2012, Obama was able to get record AA turnout and received almost 100% of those votes. So any percentage decrease in AA turnout results in that same percentage decrease in the vote share for Hillary.
Trump will also get very strong support in southwest and the valley. There are many people in those areas who have been left behind in trade deals.
As far as NOVA, I suspect that younger voters will not turn out in the same numbers as they did for Obama.
Oh I agree, younger voters aren’t going to turn out for Hillary like they did for O.. she will underperform Obama in all demographics... that’s a certainty... for crying out loud she can’t get 3000 people to show up for a rally... her VP candidate literally is drawing crowds that are counted in the dozens.. There is ZERO chance this candidate will get turnout and enthusiasm anywhere near 12 levels, let alone 8 levels... and its ludicrous they keep trying to sell us the lie that she’s dominating this thing.
Obama won nationally by about 7%.. and they are trying to feed us polls showing Hillary with those sorts of leads, or heaven forbid 12 points?? its ludicrous... at 12 points she would be outperforming Reagan v Carter... its laughable.
This race has always only had 3 possible outcomes.... A complete blowout/landslide for Trump... or a squeeker that goes either way... The media trying to spin that Hillary is looking at a landslide victory for the last few weeks is just insulting and comical.
I do think sadly, the personal destruction attacks on Trumps character may have taken this election out of the major landslide category for him... but time will tell... There is a LOT of pent up anger, and certainly no enthusiasm for Hillary...
I do believe this will be the biggest EFF U in human political history....