Any VA folks out there who can shed light on these VA cities. Are they DEM or REP areas? The "Low AA enthusiasm" implies they are AA areas and thus DEM strongholds?
ping
Clinton will take VA. She has her flunky McAwful at the helm.
Low enthusiasm in African-American (AA) is not a surprise.
I don’t trust early voting. It gives dems more insight into how much they need to steal.
If, as appears to be the case thus far, AA vote is substantially lower than it was in 2012, you can be sure that Rats will not nominate a white person for president next time around.
It truly does appear that the AA card is quite a bit more valuable than the woman card.
I wonder if AA’s would be enthusiastic about a Hispanic candidate or if they would feel as if they were being supplanted.
There would be a Republican Gov there if they didn’t give up on the race
Early Voting / Final 2012 election votes:
36% in Newport News: 64% Obama
37% in Norfolk: 71% Obama
37% in Petersburg: 90% Obama
28% in Portsmouth: 63.9% Obama
I didn’t know that we have early voting here in Virginia, so I don’t think the early voting numbers have much meaning.
You would think more alcoholics would be interested in this election...
Low black voter turnout means VA may not be in Clinton’s direction.
Dems voters have no enthusiasm for the corrupt witch.
Those are Dem areas. Norfolk and Petersburg usually go especially blue. Virginia Beach, which is next to Norfolk and has a larger population has a good chance of going red though.
Deep dark blue. Romney got zero votes in a lot of those districts.
Obama only won Virginia by 115K votes in 2012.
A low AA showing, plus Trump getting 15% AA, and Trump voter enthusiasm = TRUMP WIN.
I predict Trump wins Virginia.
what about female voter enthusiasm? if there is low female voter enthusiasm, imho since VA does not have many hispanics, that hillary’s chances of winning va would be slim to none.
(is it over? and if so, when will cnn give up?)
All Dem strongholds other than NoVA. NoVA contains one-third of the vote. It is where the Dems build up their big cushion. Those numbers would be interesting.
What about the new group...likely felon voters?
These are dramatic numbers.
It says that turnout in Dem strongholds in Virgina, at this point in early voting, is only about a third of what it was in 2012.
It shows VERY low African American enthusiasm.
In 2012, African Americans made up a record 13% of those voting nationwide. If they just revert to normal turnout levels, they will be more like 10% or 11%. These results indicate below normal African American turnout. On top of that, polling indicates that relatively more may be voting for Trump (although that is less of a factor than turnout will be).
If this holds nationwide, it would mean 3%-4%, or more, of the total vote lost to Democrats, compared to 2012. The effect would be big in swing States.
The Democrats will need to make exceptional efforts to agitate their AA base. The traditional “Shake the Sheets at Them” (KKK is coming to get you!), seems to be falling flat. They rolled out Michelle Obama (more popular with AA’s than Obama himself) to campaign with Hillary.
Typically, the Dems bank a big lead in early voting. Without that, election day turnout will be even more important.
I work near heavily black Portsmouth and travel through it often. Not that political signs are a sure indicator, but there are virtually no Hillary signs to be seen anywhere. Back in 2012, the landscape was full of Obama signs.
One thing about Virginia, fellow FReepers. With the exception of the wave election of 2008, GOP candidates’ supporters tend to break late for them, giving them a better showing than pre-election polls show. A prime case in point is Ed Gillespie’s showing against Mark Warner two years ago. Gillespie trailed by double digits for almost the entire year, closed to 9 in the final week, and came to within less than a point on Election Day.
Virginia Beach is the state’s largest city and heavily military and middle class. Trump will do very well there. The Western 2/3 of the state is Trump and its not even close. It all depends on turnout. If Trump can get just a bit more to turn out than Romney did in 2012. he wins the state