Posted on 10/26/2016 10:56:58 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
On September 26th Gallup released the results of the survey it does each September before an election. The important data points it contained are significant as a means as calmly accessing where Donald Trump stands going into this year’s election.
Within the results was the fact that, at just 47%, the intentions of Democrats to vote is at the lowest point since 2000. This is not the insignificant matter that the Democrat controlled media would have us believe. Aside from the large 11 point intensity to vote edge that Donald Trump voters have, if this portends a lower than usual total voter turnout this is good news for him.
Surprisingly, since 1952 the average total turnout has been just 52.53% of eligible voters. Even during the last four elections, which were unusual in their over-all character, the average was still only 58.25%;
When Republican George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004 the turnout average was 57% which was 2.5% below the 59.5% average turnout for the last four presidential elections.
This year Gallup cautions that, “Amid the news frenzy leading up to the first general election debate of 2016, fewer U.S. adults rate themselves highly likely to vote for president than did so in September of each of the past four presidential election years. Sixty-nine percent of Americans currently rate their chances of voting a "10" on a 1-to-10 likelihood of voting scale. That is down from 76% in 2012 and 80% in 2008, the year with the highest turnout since 2000.”
The depressed intentions to vote as reported by various age groups shows bad news for Hillary Clinton. For instance, at only 47% those at the younger end of the scale have the lowest intentions to vote since 2000; not by a little but by 19 points as compared to how excited they were on average during Barack Obama’s two victories.
But of more importance those who are older have the same 82% intention to vote they had since 2000. Even in the John McCain humiliation in 2008 and the hapless campaign of Mitt Romney in 2012 these voters were the only bright spots on the final tally. In 2008 older voters voted for McCain by 8 points and in 2012 they voted for Romney by 12 points.
In the last four elections this group was a solid 16% of the total turnout.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/195806/americans-less-sure-vote-president.aspx
Interesting but after 2012 and 2008 I still feel like Charlie Brown and the football.
I think turnout in this election is good for republicans - so many people hate Hillary the only thing she hopes for is to have them hate Trump more and that won’t drive turnout.
in THIS election, the large turnout favors the R ticket and Mr Trump especially
at least, among living and legal voters...it does
we will need ALL of them!!!!! to overcome the D’s Deceased and Illegal voting blocks
So if you want Trump to win, don’t vote!
Is there ANY scumbag mindf### tactic not in use?
I think turnout has already been forecasted by the attendance at Trump and Clinton rallies, meaning it will be high for the energized Trump supporters, and low for the apathetic Clinton backers.
That’s the main reason I think most polls are wrong, because aside from other flaws, like over-sampling Democrats, they are not making the correct turnout assumptions.
1. Hillary Clinton is going to get a lot of votes from Republicans (mainly dimwitted women and limp-wristed men).
2. Donald Trump is going to get a lot of votes from Democrats (mainly working-class voters of all races).
3. The non-affiliated voter turnout in some states may exceed the number of registered Democrats and/or Republicans.
Yeah, that is the ticket!
I think the news should flash the “He’s Lying” banners whenever anyone from organizations which lie and don’t apologize are talking.
I have read a study that showed just the opposite.
It gave very detailed statistics that show Democrat turnout is nearly constant, every single election.
So, the result of every election is dependant ONLY on Republican turnout. High GOP turnout and they win.
This bodes well for this election because even if Democrat turnout was enthusiastic, they only get a constant amount within a small margin. They enthusiasm for hilLIARy is no where near the support for Obama.
But, enthusiasm for Turmp is huge. GET PEOPLE OUT TO VOTE.
This ‘analysis’ is STUPID, and designed to suppress GOP turnout.
No Kidding
Only a fool who did not read beyond the headline would say what you just said.
Gee wouldn’t it be great to just read the piece instead of just the headline?
I don’t know what your “facts” are from; but the truth is that in 9 of the 10 lowest turnout elections since 1952 Republicans have won.
Bush won with low turnout and so will Trump. This piece is a ready made answer to the coming media moan about “a low turn out” is a terrible thing. Our enthusiasm is so high that Trump will win big because Democrat turnout will be so low.
Really? What did I miss? Do you do anything other than bumper stickers, or can you cobble together a rebuttal?
Your logic isn't exactly rocket science, since Trump is setting continuous rally and support attendance records and he's the Republican candidate. That EASILY indicates that the highest Republican turnout in history is coming.
Get lost, shill. You're just another RINO trying to sew despair in the face of victory.
I think that the DEMS should take this advice, and see if they can get a record low turnout...so they can win.
: )
I understand, but...
John The Anti-Veteran Veteran McCain was Charlie Brown. Willard The Rat Romney was Charlie Brown on phony steroids.
Donald Trump is not Charlie Brown.
That just doesn’t make sense.
Trump is going to have the largest turnout of any republican since Reagan- and you think thats going to be bad?
And if YOU read (and try to comprehend) my reply, I said the exact same thing you did.
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