Posted on 10/26/2016 10:29:26 AM PDT by TigerClaws
With their candidate lagging in most of the major polls, Donald Trump's supporters are hoping the election holds a surprise akin to June's Brexit vote.
Goldman Sachs, though, believes the chances of a Nov. 8 surprise in the U.S. are remote. The two races differ in several key ways, Goldman economist Alec Phillips said, diminishing the possibility of a repeat where polling incorrectly suggested that Britons would vote to stay in the European Union. "We think the situation is different for two reasons. First, and most importantly, while both situations represented an opportunity for voters to endorse a change in the status quo, voters in the U.K. were asked to decide on an idea whereas in the U.S. they are being asked to decide on a person," Phillips said in a note to clients Wednesday. "Second, the polls are simply not as close in the current presidential contest as they were ahead of the U.K. referendum."
On the first point, Phillips obviously is correct. The second, though, isn't as clear.
True, some polls have showed a yawning gap between the two candidates. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the Hillary Clinton lead at 11 points, the last ABC tracking poll had the Democrat ahead by 8 and CNN has the advantage at 6 points. However, the Real Clear Politics average of all major polls gives Clinton just a 4.4-point edge, and the Los Angeles Times' tracker even sees Trump with a 1-point lead.
By comparison, the final London Telegraph poll heading into the June 23 vote had the "remain" vote with a comfortable 4-point lead. Betting odds in the U.K. had given "remain" an 88 percent chance of prevailing, against the "leave" victory of 4 points.
This is pre-suasion.
They are trying to tell Trump supporters that all is lost, they should be dejected and stay home.
Ignore the elite.
Kick ‘em in the a$$!
VOTE TRUMP!
USD/MXN up over 1% today. If it can manage a multi-day rally, Goldman may start to change its tune.
Heidi Cruz is back to her GS day job, yes?
They tend to get what they pay for.
Translation: we’ve poured big big bucks into getting this grifting criminal elected and we’ll make sure that we’ve bought enough voting machines, imported enough illegal democrats, paid off enough “journalists:, and bribed enough voting officials to make us sure that we’ve rightfully bought off this election.
The big hedge fund companies make fake projections to manipulate markets to their advantage all the time. No reason to believe they believe what they are saying. Everything Goldman Sachs says is intended for their own advantage with unholy heaps of money at stake for them.
Wrong on both accounts. It is an idea, and the polls are designed to create opinion, not measure it. Keep wishing its different.
ok commies - you have your instructions - don’t expect Trump to win - it’s over, stay home.
Message to Freedom loving Trump supporters - Goldman is SCARED of us. Big Trump win is rolling through.
Further proof of why its nickname is Government Sachs.
I think Trump is going to win - if voter fraud doesn’t happen on a mass scale. What I like to do is read non-political websites and read the comments, and to me it looks like the general public is 90% for Trump. Here is one example- an article on Trump on Yahoo.com and the comments are almost all for Trump. Hillary is going to be destroyed Nov. 8th
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-trump-says-clinton-policy-syria-lead-world-192023608.html
Dem Talking Litman head on FOX just now, “Let’s not kid the viewers. Trump has absolutely no path to become President.”
“By comparison, the final London Telegraph poll heading into the June 23 vote had the “remain” vote with a comfortable 4-point lead. Betting odds in the U.K. had given “remain” an 88 percent chance of prevailing, against the “leave” victory of 4 points.”
American Patriots are as equally fed up as the Brits were with losing their country/sovereignty to third worlders...I believe the wind is behind Trump...If Patriots turn out for this election and the voter fraud can be reasonably contained, I do believe Trump wins, which means America wins.
They put their money on 666—just trying to get that roll on their weighted roulette wheel. :-)
by definition, surprises come as a surprise.
They have far too much to lose to stop trying.
They will FAIL.
The voters KNOW Trump is the "man with the PLAN."
Gee, why don’t we dispense with the charade of elections and just have Goldman Sachs choose our President every four years? It would be a lot cheaper and less stressful. /s
How much sense would it make to expect a surprise? Is, “Don’t expect a surprise” what passes for profundity these days?
It is unseemly for Wall St. firms to wade in election-year politics, unless they sense something is going wrong, I mean, against them. Usually they are happy to step back and watch politicians on their payroll doing their work.
Break them up
They are not a Bank
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.