Despite Jeff Roe (Cruz’s hatchet man), painting this as dire, he knows Trump has this and here’s why. Polling indicates Trump most likely has Ohio, NC and NV per his results. Based on early voting analysis by others and our own LS, Florida looks good. So starting with Romney’s 206 and adding Florida and OH, we get Trump to 253. If we want to be optimistic, let’s give him NV per Roe’s polling as well as IA, which is another 12, and gets him to 265. Add ME2 and he is at 266.
Now here’s where things get dicey but Roe conveniently spins this as a negative for Trump. Trump is down a whole TWO points in Colorado and a whopping 3 in PA. Either one of those puts him over the top. However, Roe can’t have it both ways. He says Luzerne County is a bellweather predictor in every race (state and federal) since 2000 and Trump is up there by 11, but he discounts that by saying Trump is down 3 statewide. It’s either one or the other. My feel is that Trump wins PA by 3. Luzerne is tailored made to Trump’s message, but it can’t be off 15 points if it’s been a bellweather county.
So, Trump has a razor edge to skate through but it’s a good path and clearly doable. She is on shaky ground but nobody says that. And also, don’t overlook Doer County in WI that has gotten much tighter, and I still think MI may provide an election night surprise.
Not great: PA clearly is in play, but earlier Trump was up in both counties, big. Now this is tossup.
VA disappointing.
WI a lost cause.
Good news? As I keep saying, OH safe, NC is safe I think, and despite Hillsborough, this is not enough to save FL for Cankles I think Cankles is safe.
NV is a dilemma: I don’t think +6 in Washoe overcomes Clark, but would need NV people to weigh in. CO at -2 or -3 is a much better shot I would think.